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Saturday, April 20, 2024

2023 NFL win totals picks, bets for AFC North: Division hinges on Lamar Jackson commerce rumors, Bengals new king

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NFL season win totals are among the most enjoyable motion to wager on — it is a season-long gambit with week-to-week depth due to how a lot each sport issues for the ultimate season document. For years now I’ve written up the win totals for CBS Sports activities, so it is wild to me we now get them in mid-to-late March; we have at all times needed to grind our means via Might to get them launched.

Caesar’s Sportsbook dropped win totals for each single NFL workforce just lately, so let’s break them down division by division. Examine the remainder of the divisions right here (if no hyperlink, it is coming quickly so test again):

                                                         AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
                                                         NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Earlier than we dive into the AFC North, a pair fast notes. One, we’re choosing each workforce however not betting each workforce. Two, any finest bets will likely be denoted in daring, and so on. Three, should you like an over that is fairly excessive, do not guess it now, as a result of accidents are random. 4, I am choosing these as of March 30, so I will lean extra unders based mostly on accidents.

Let’s get to it.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

Over  11.5 (+105) / Below 11.5 (-125)

The Bengals want to win the AFC North for the third-straight season … for the primary time in franchise historical past. That claims loads about Cincy (but additionally about Pittsburgh and Baltimore if we’re being truthful). What says much more is the workforce complete for Joe Burrow and Co. at this level of the offseason, with Cincy checking in at a VERY sturdy 11.5 Over/Below for his or her win complete. The Bengals suffered some personnel losses this offseason, with each Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell departing in free company. Dax Hill appears like a growing younger alternative and Michael Thomas was re-signed; add within the huge, huge addition of free agent left sort out Orlando Brown and the Bengals might very properly have come out on prime within the attrition sport, even after making two straight AFC title video games. Brown ought to considerably enhance Burrow’s safety, which might result in Burrow staying upright and will end in everybody feeling higher about his well being and skill to push the ball down the sector. There’s an excessive amount of quarterback uncertainty for the opposite three groups on this division for me to not just like the Over at plus cash, even with a first-place schedule lingering. I’d NOT advise betting it proper now — an April 11.5 win complete is extra prone to go down than up, though a Lamar Jackson commerce or prolonged holdout might probably shift the juice. 

Decide: Bengals OVER 11.5 wins (+105)

Cleveland Browns

Over 8.5 (-175)  / Below 8.5 (+145)

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Some outrageous juice on this win complete for the Over and it is most likely schedule associated: the AFC North attracts the NFC West and the AFC South as cross-divisional matchups and that by itself might find yourself trying like 5-6 wins if Cleveland is an effective soccer workforce. My concern with the Over right here is 1) that is means an excessive amount of juice to put for 9 wins, even in a 17-game season; and a couple of) Deshaun Watson’s means to get again to his earlier stage of efficiency. Watson’s skillset is simple and he improved over a number of video games final 12 months, however we’ve not seen any actual constant, sustained success from him in a number of years. The offense has loads of firepower however will Watson match into what Kevin Stefanski desires to do (he is run the ball aggressively previously). Defensively, Jim Schwartz may assist cowl up some flaws with an aggressive scheme and there is expertise on that facet of the ball as properly. You merely can not lay -175 in April for a win complete with out seeing the schedule and figuring out what accidents might pop up between every now and then, so I am going below right here. Definitely the Browns profile as a bounce-back workforce nonetheless. 

Decide: Browns UNDER 8.5 (+145)

Baltimore Ravens

Over 8.5 (-120) / Below (+105)

Deciding whether or not to go over or below on the Ravens in 2023 — at this time limit of the offseason — boils down to at least one quite simple factor: do you consider Lamar Jackson will begin for Baltimore in Week 1? For those who do, the Over might be a reasonably good look. The passing sport would not profile as “elite” per se, however I belief Todd Monken to trend a stout offense round Lamar, the run sport and a few explosive passing performs. Defensively they have sufficient on that facet of the ball to be harmful if some go rushers develop. For those who consider Lamar goes to play, the Ravens over is just too low cost. For those who assume Lamar is gone or holds out, the Ravens below is just too low cost. Good luck predicting what is going to occur however in case you have a robust hunch both means, now could be an honest time to take a stab. For now given Lamar’s place and the plus cash I will lean below.

Decide: Ravens UNDER 8.5 (+105)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Over 8.5 (-115) / Below 8.5 (-105)

This Steelers workforce is among the most attention-grabbing evaluations of the upcoming season. Mike Tomlin merely would not have dropping seasons. It is a cliche at this level to a small diploma, however he navigates his means in addition to anybody with lower than preferrred circumstances. Kenny Pickett is not an upside machine, however what if he is good in his second 12 months? No Matt Canada would assist, however, once more, lower than preferrred circumstances. The protection wants a bounceback 12 months as properly, however there is a good mixture of elite upside (T.J. Watt) and veteran stability (Cam Heyward, Patrick Peterson — shoutout to the All Issues Coated pod!) the place you’ll be able to see it working. One of many unsold issues for Pittsburgh, Cincy and Cleveland is the Lamar scenario too — if he is traded, it could dramatically shift issues. I will purchase Tomlin’s ground of eight video games right here at an affordable value.

Decide: Steelers OVER 8.5 (-115)



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