The Six Pack: Alabama vs. Tennessee, Texas vs. Georgia amongst high Week 8 faculty soccer picks

Are you able to hear that? That is the sound of the tide turning for The Six Pack! It felt good to publish a 4-2 document final week as a result of we actually wanted it. We’re nonetheless underneath .500 on the season and have fairly the sports activities betting gap out of which to dig, however final week felt like the primary time this season once we not solely had a robust learn of the scenario on this column, however we weren’t repeatedly punched within the face by dangerous luck.

I can not assist however imagine we’ll win each single guess we make for the remainder of the season.

All faculty soccer betting odds under supplied by way of BetMGM | Fanatics | DraftKings

Video games of the Week

No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas: I took the underneath in final week’s recreation between Ohio State and Oregon, and it was shortly made clear that will not be a winner. I then took a tough take into consideration what I used to be seeing. Earlier within the season, we noticed a bunch of factors scored in Georgia’s recreation in opposition to Alabama, too. And you already know what? There appear to be a variety of high-scoring video games between high groups today — excess of traditional.

So I dug into the numbers, and the sensation has assist. Going again to the 2019 season, there have been 30 video games performed between groups ranked within the high 5 of the AP High 25 ballot. The over in these video games is 17-11-2. Now, traits are one factor, however they do not imply a lot with out there being a cause for his or her existence, and I feel I do know what it could be.

You’ll be able to’t be elite in faculty soccer today with out an explosive, harmful offense. Being nice on either side of the ball is fantastic, however you do not see many groups reaching the Faculty Soccer Playoff with a horrible offense and lights-out protection. And irrespective of how good a protection is, it might solely accomplish that a lot to decelerate well-executed offense.

I feel we’ll see the same story play out in Texas on Saturday night time. The Longhorns’ offense is likely one of the greatest within the nation, and whereas it is had a number of tough moments, Georgia’s has confirmed to be harmful as properly when clicking. Plus, Georgia’s protection has not performed on the similar degree this season that we’re used to, and whereas Texas’ defensive numbers are unimaginable, what’s the very best offense Texas has confronted? Michigan? Oklahoma? ULM? That complete is beginning to look a bit low, is not it? The Decide: Over 55.5 (-110) by way of BetMGM

No. 7 Alabama at No. 11 Tennessee: We is not going to be making use of the identical over precept right here, however that is nonetheless a really attention-grabbing recreation. Tennessee has not carried out as I anticipated. I knew the protection can be good, however the offense has been one-dimensional. Nico Iamaleava has not lived as much as my expectations, and the offensive line has been sub-par. However I additionally get the sense this Volunteers offense is not removed from firing on all cylinders and having an enormous day. I’m wondering if it might be this week.

Alabama’s defensive numbers are sturdy general, however all of us bear in mind what occurred to this unit within the second half in opposition to Georgia. I would not be shocked to see Tennessee discover a related degree of success. Then there’s the offense, which has been too reliant on Jalen Milroe for my liking. Milroe took a variety of hits final week in opposition to South Carolina, and I fear about him carrying down because the season progresses. Additionally, the final time Alabama went on the highway, it misplaced to Vanderbilt; and no offense to a beautiful Vandy crowd that night time, however the setting at Neyland Stadium ought to be a bit completely different and tougher to beat. I haven’t got a ton of confidence in both of these two proper now, so I am taking the factors with the house group and seeing what occurs. The Decide: Tennessee +3 (-105) by way of Fanatics

Lock of the Week

New Mexico at Utah State: I have never included it within the column each week as a result of I attempt to keep on with extra easy bets right here, however Utah State has been an ATM for me this season. It is horrible defensively, and betting the group totals of its opponents has been very worthwhile. As has doing the identical for the groups New Mexico has performed. There is a cause the full for this recreation is as excessive as it’s: these defenses stink.

However we’re betting the underneath anyway. Totals within the 70s weren’t all that unusual two years in the past, however we hardly ever see them now, and there is a cause for it. Current adjustments to clock guidelines have led to fewer possessions in video games, which has led to lower-scoring video games general. Sure, we nonetheless see the occasional 45-42 recreation, however almost all the pieces must go proper for that to occur within the fashionable setting. How typically does that occur in faculty soccer? The Decide: Underneath 78.5 (-110) by way of BetMGM

Underdog of the Week

Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana: I’ve lengthy made a degree to say how tough it’s for any faculty soccer group to get by a 12-game common season with out a loss. Whenever you mix the journey, schoolwork and all the pieces else that goes into the game (together with groups filled with 18-24-year-old males who do not at all times assume clearly), sustaining perfection week in and week out is almost inconceivable. The groups that do it are sometimes probably the most proficient groups that may present up and beat others once they aren’t at their greatest.

Whenever you aren’t a kind of groups, it is solely a matter of time earlier than you lose. Properly, Indiana, I am sorry, however it’s solely a matter of time earlier than you lose. Perhaps it is not this week! You’ll be able to beat Nebraska, however this unfold strikes me as being a bit too giant. notably once I have a look at the dimensions benefit Nebraska has at its receiver and tight finish positions in opposition to your secondary. The Decide: Nebraska +6.5 (-105) by way of BetMGM

Explosive Offenses of the Week

Iowa at Michigan State: I discussed earlier that betting the group totals of Utah State’s opponents has been an ATM in 2024, however you already know what else has been? The over in Iowa video games. I do know, it is a sentence that seemingly should not make any sense, however the fact is the reality. Iowa has performed six video games this yr and the over is 5-1 as these matchups are ending a mean of seven.58 factors over the full.

But, right here we’re with Iowa taking part in one other recreation with a complete set within the low 40s. Hear, the passing assault remains to be poor, however Kaleb Johnson and this Iowa dashing offense are ripping off chunk play after chunk play. It ought to proceed in opposition to Michigan State. Additionally, Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles places the soccer in harmful spots far too typically, which is a recipe for catastrophe in opposition to Iowa. The Hawkeyes may simply add factors on protection right here, too. The Decide: Over 40.5 (-108) by way of DraftKings

Binturong of the Week

Arizona State at Cincinnati: We made cash taking Arizona State final weekend in opposition to the Zombie Utes, however we’re going the opposite manner this week. Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt suffered an damage in that win and will not play this week. That is dangerous information for the Solar Devils as a result of I contemplate the downgrade from Leavitt to Jeff Sims to be appreciable. With out Leavitt, Arizona State must lean on an choice dashing assault with Sims and Cam Skattebo. It might be efficient, however the true vulnerability of the Cincinnati protection has been within the air.

The place the Bearcats excel is within the crimson zone. Their crimson zone effectivity of 35.3% ranks fifth nationally, and the three.53 factors they’re permitting on crimson zone possessions ranks thirteenth. I do not know what number of drives Arizona State will end with Cincinnati loading the field and never worrying about Sims’ arm. Lastly, the Cincinnati protection has completed a superb job forcing turnovers this yr, and Jeff Sims has turned the ball over loads throughout his profession. The Decide: Cincinnati -5 (-110) by way of DraftKings

SportsLine’s confirmed pc mannequin is looking for 5 outright upsets in Week 8 of faculty soccer. Go to SportsLine now to see all of them, plus get unfold picks for each recreation from the mannequin that simulates every recreation 10,000 occasions. 

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