The Seattle Mariners have put collectively three straight profitable seasons for the primary time because the early 2000s. Nonetheless, solely a type of three seasons — 2022 — has yielded a postseason berth. The group goals to alter that in 2024. Sure, there’s a plain lack of dedication on the a part of membership possession, however they’ve a real famous person anchoring the lineup and a crop of younger pitching that is the envy of just about each different staff in MLB. Now let’s have a better have a look at the 2024 Mariners.
Win complete projection, odds
- 2023 document: 88-74 (third place in AL Central)
- 2024 SportsLine win complete over/below: 87.5
- World Sequence odds (by way of SportsLine): +2000
Projected lineup
- J.P. Crawford, SS
- Julio Rodríguez, CF
- Jorge Polanco, 2B
- Mitch Garver, DH
- Cal Raleigh, C
- Ty France, 1B
- Luke Raley, RF
- Mitch Haniger, LF
- Josh Rojas, 3B
Final season, the M’s on offense ranked twelfth within the majors in runs scored and sixteenth in OPS. New to the scene in Seattle for 2024 are second baseman Jorge Polanco, DH Mitch Garver, outfielders Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger, and bench items Luis Urías and Seby Zavala. Along with his elite quality-of-contact indicators and as he strikes nearer to what needs to be his prime seasons, chances are you’ll contemplate Rodríguez a robust candidate for AL MVP honors in 2024.
Projected rotation
- Luis Castillo, RHP
- George Kirby, RHP
- Logan Gilbert, RHP
- Bryce Miller, RHP
- Bryan Woo, RHP
Seattle final season ranked a robust fourth in MLB in starters’ ERA. The beginning 5 from final season stays intact, and the unit as soon as once more figures to be a power for the M’s.
Projected bullpen
- Nearer: RHP Andrés Muñoz
- Setup: RHP Ryne Stanek, LHP Tayler Saucedo, RHP Gregory Santos
- Center: LHP Gabe Speier, RHP Trent Thornton, RHP Matt Brash
- Lengthy: RHP Austin Voth
The Mariners’ bullpen in 2023 ranked fourth in MLB in reduction ERA and fourth in reduction FIP. Offseason additions to the reduction corps embody Santos, Stanek, and Voth, amongst others. Brash and Santos are presently sidelined with damage.
Will they rating sufficient runs?
The figures above counsel that whereas the Seattle offense in 2023 was hardly a catastrophe, it additionally wasn’t a lot of an asset. Sure, that OPS is just not notably encouraging for the M’s, but it surely’s value noting that their xwOBA (what’s this?) was tied for ninth in MLB. By way of batted-ball high quality, this was a strong unit. Therein lies some hope for enchancment.
Final season, the second base place was the largest weak spot for the M’s, as these manning the place mixed for an OPS of simply .607. The addition of Jorge Polanco by way of commerce with the Twins ought to assist issues on that entrance. Whereas Polanco isn’t any stranger to accidents to his lower-half, he is fairly productive when wholesome, notably by the requirements of center infielders. During the last three seasons, Polanco boasts an OPS+ of 120 on the plate whereas averaging 30 house runs per 162 video games performed.
Elsewhere, Mitch Garver was signed to fill the DH function. Seattle DHs in 2023 mixed to slash .207/.285/.392, which is not what you need from a bat-only function reminiscent of that one. Garver has sturdy plate self-discipline, each when it comes to his willingness to take a stroll and his associated capability to put off pitches out of the zone. As effectively, he squares the ball up, is again to crushing fastballs, and has drastically diminished his ground-ball share. He is very a lot a near-term improve for Seattle. At first base, Ty France was victimized by poor luck with the bat and is a bounce-back candidate for 2024. At third base, a Josh Rojas-Luis Urías seems to be the association, and therein lies a threat of not getting what you want from a nook place.
Total, although, there’s cause to suppose the Mariners’ offense could also be improved in sure areas and extra typically profit from modest enchancment on the luck entrance. It is hardly a juggernaut, however it might be sufficient given the M’s doubtless excellence on the run-prevention entrance.
Can the rotation be baseball’s finest?
The brief reply: Sure. This specific unit was certainly a robust one in 2023, and as famous above is unbroken for 2024. Along with that fourth-best ERA famous above, the Seattle rotation final season ranked third in FIP, first in all of baseball in innings, and fourth in common fastball velocity. Stabilizing ace Luis Castillo has for essentially the most half been a mannequin of well being and sturdiness, and he is nonetheless on the high of his recreation. Behind him is a formidable assortment of high-ceiling younger arms who’ve largely delivered on the highest stage to date. Of these younger arms, Logan Gilbert is the oldest, and he would not flip 27 till Might.
Wanting ahead, the ZiPS projection system obtainable at FanGraphs pegs Woo as the one M’s starter in 2024 to have an ERA above 4.00 (he is estimated at 4.11). Final season, this beginning 5 — Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, and Woo — mixed for an ERA of three.69 and an FIP of three.80, each of that are sturdy figures by up to date rotation requirements. Turning once more to ZiPS, this quintet in 2024 is projected for a mixed ERA of three.60 and a mixed FIP of three.74. Despite the fact that projection methods are conservative by design, the most effective beginning fives of 2023 is predicted to be even higher in 2024. Clearly, well being can get in the way in which of all this (though the M’s have a very good depth in piece in former top-100 prospect and former No. 6 general choose in 24-year-old Emerson Hancock), however proper now this appears like an elite unit.
What would make for a profitable season?
The duty is a doubtlessly onerous one contemplating the M’s share a division with the reigning World Sequence champion Texas Rangers and the trendy dynasty Houston Astros, who’ve made not less than so far as the ALCS in every of the final seven seasons. Even so, an AL West title is the usual for the 2024 Mariners. The M’s have claimed simply three division titles of their historical past and have not hoisted the flag since their 116-win marketing campaign of 2001. Clearly, a deep playoff run can also be anticipated of the staff that prevails in such a tricky division, however first issues first for Seattle. Overcome possession’s paltry dedication to the mission and finest the Rangers and Astros for the AL West crown. The shimmering presence of Rodríguez plus all that pitching makes this a believable goal.