The Vikings have been left in an unattainable choice with the announcement that Kirk Cousins was heading to the Atlanta Falcons. It was an anticipated departure within the close to future, however Minnesota didn’t suppose it might come to an finish this shortly. It left the crew with out a beginning quarterback, a market of thinning choices, and a draft place that didn’t guarantee they’d discover a prospect within the 2024 NFL Draft.
Enter Sam Darnold, the one-year rental designed to simply regular the ship whereas the group works out what it’s subsequent step might be. The truth is that 2024 went in a short time from an assumed return to the playoffs, to a whole nightmare for Vikings followers — with very actual considerations whether or not Justin Jefferson, the league’s greatest vast receiver, will endure this rebuild on the place.
I’m intimately conscious of Sam Darnold’s sport. As a fan of the Panthers I watched him play for a season and a half below heart, arriving in Carolina with a lot of the identical promise that this could possibly be the crew that would “repair” him. Let’s dive into what Darnold’s time in Carolina taught us, and whether or not Vikings followers have something to sit up for.
Who’s Sam Darnold as a participant?
Bodily you’re speaking a couple of man who has all of the instruments. This was current when he was drafted in 2018. Darnold has good dimension, underrated athleticism, and an NFL-caliber arm to make nearly all of the throws you need to see frequently.
The most important concern is consistency. In truth, Darnold could also be probably the most inconsistent beginning quarterbacks I’ve seen play in Carolina. He persistently vacillates between making All Professional caliber throws, then wanting as if he’s forgotten the right way to play the place the subsequent.
It’s not for insecurity, however slightly a pervasive worry of strain. Darnold’s notorious “seeing ghosts” line in New York exists to this present day. If the pocket is clear and he feels snug he’ll make the throws, however he reacts extremely poorly to not simply strain, however perceived strain — and that’s a mammoth downside.
Darnold was unable to distinguish instances the place he was really below menace of being hit and wanted to get the ball away, and when it solely regarded like he was going to be taken down. This led to far too many performs Darnold gave up on, or launched the ball too early, leaving yards on the sector consequently.
In 2022 when Darnold bounced again right into a beginning position he returned below a a lot better Panthers offensive line. It’s for that reason his numbers jumped and he was capable of finding his rhythm. Nonetheless, there stays a pervasive, ceaseless downside the place Darnold mishandles strain, and when this begins he tends to get in his personal head and spiral.
Sam Darnold, contained in the numbers
So the query now could be “The place does Sam Darnold win?” That is really an space the place he’s a superb match for the Vikings. As a quarterback he has been hard-coded with distrust, seemingly from his time in New York. Consequently he doesn’t lead his receivers significantly nicely, or throw any passes he doesn’t really feel might be wins.
Each Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison excel at getting separation early of their break. That is enormous for Darnold below heart, as a result of he likes to have a security blanket of figuring out he’s acquired an open window earlier than he releases the ball.
When he has that affirmation he can really be a fairly good quarterback. D.J. Moore was expert at getting early separation in 2022, and the hyperlink between Darnold and Moore was one of many solely vivid spots in regards to the Panthers offense that 12 months. When he has that stage of security there’s no downside with him ripping the ball downfield, with supposed air yards in 2022 of seven.9 that season — nicely above league common.
The flip aspect is that he was extremely nicely protected. Darnold was solely below strain on 20.2 p.c of snaps in 2022, which is astonishingly low for a struggling crew. By comparability Bryce Younger, below the crumbling Panthers line in 2023, was below strain on 24.2 p.c of downs.
Darnold is at his greatest operating performs off play motion. His 2022 splits in Carolina have been pronounced on this regard.
- Play motion passes: 45-of-52 (86 p.c), 414 yards (8.0 yards-per-attempts)
- Conventional drop backs and RPO: 37-of-88 (42 p.c), 729 yards (8.2 yards-per-attempt)
If the Vikings can set up the run with Aaron Jones, and the specter of his dashing capacity leads defenses to committing a security to the field, then the crew can run play motion and Darnold will be most snug.
Darnold is an unimaginable streaky passer, so don’t get caught within the hype
At instances Darnold’s performances can look out of this world, however they’re fools gold. His tenure in Carolina taught followers this the exhausting manner. After the commerce in 2021 he got here out of the gate wanting like a Professional Bowl quarterback. His four-game streak to open the season really had followers believing the crew had fleeced the hapless Jets and gotten a soon-to-be prime quarterback.
99-of-146 (67 p.c), 1,189 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT — 95.38 passer score
Then every thing fell aside. These early video games have been a product of an absence of strain, not quarterback ability. Darnold completed the season with 9 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a passer score of 71.9.
The cautionary story is that even when Darnold comes out of the gates scorching, don’t fall into the entice of assuming he’s a modified QB — as a result of his DNA as a passer stays as somebody who doesn’t deal with in-game adversity nicely.
What’s the ceiling for the Darnold-led Vikings?
That’s the large query mark. If this crew can defend him, and the run sport is a menace, then there’s no motive to consider this crew can’t win video games. The problem is that he’s going to overlook loads of throws that Kirk Cousins might have made, and gradual the offense consequently.
A variety of strain falls on Brian Flores to plan a protection that may hold Minnesota in a superb place. Darnold is just not a quarterback who can throw you again into video games, or thrive in apparent passing eventualities. He must be dealt with with child gloves, at which level he could make performs.
Darnold is just not a superb quarterback, neither is he a nasty one — he simply is who he’s. If you happen to can insulate him there’s success available, however don’t suppose for a second that this would be the time he turns it throughout.
In the end the expectation must be for an extended season in Minnesota, punctuated with small quantities of pleasure.