Who’s essentially the most clutch quarterback within the NFL? Which quarterback would you like with the ball in his palms with the sport on the road?
I appeared to the numbers to reply these age-old questions, utilizing two stats:
- Quarterback conversion fee on game-tying or go-ahead drives within the fourth quarter and time beyond regulation
- Anticipated factors added (EPA) per play in these conditions (seems to be at worth added on all performs between rushes, passes, sacks and fumbles)
Basically, how typically does a quarterback lead his workforce down the sector efficiently in do-or-die conditions, and the way does he carry out on these drives? I broke these numbers down between a quarterback’s profession within the common season, profession within the playoffs, and 2023 efficiency. All of those had been evenly weighted and used to churn out this prime 10 checklist of essentially the most clutch quarterbacks within the NFL.
Final disclaimer. I solely appeared on the 26 present beginning quarterbacks with NFL expertise. Rookies and different projected starters with just a few begins (like Anthony Richardson) weren’t thought-about.
10. Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert has transformed on 42 % of game-tying or go-ahead drive possibilities in his profession, the Tenth-best fee within the league amongst energetic starters.
He was efficient within the clutch once more final yr, however the Chargers protection did not maintain up their finish of the cut price. Get this, he had 5 game-tying or go-ahead landing passes within the fourth quarter and time beyond regulation of losses final yr, essentially the most in a season in NFL historical past.
Nobody in NFL historical past has extra game-winning drives (14) and game-tying or go-ahead landing passes within the fourth quarter and OT (16) at age 25 or youthful than Justin Herbert.
I’ve a sense he’ll be getting extra shine now with Jim Harbaugh on the controls.
9. Lamar Jackson
Jackson has the third-highest conversion fee on these clutch drives (48 %) amongst energetic starters behind solely C.J. Stroud and Patrick Mahomes.
Downside is, he hasn’t delivered within the clutch within the postseason and he was one of many causes the Ravens blew so many fourth-quarter leads not too long ago.
He has 16 complete touchdowns and 15 turnovers within the fourth quarter within the final three years, whereas the Ravens have blown essentially the most seven-point leads within the fourth quarter in a three-year span in NFL historical past (9).
8. Daniel Jones
Hear me out earlier than you pound your fist on the desk and yell “Daniel Jones is eighth on this checklist?!?!?” He had only a few clutch alternatives by way of three seasons however he is been regular recently. He efficiently led the Giants down the sector to tie or take the lead on 11 of 25 alternatives (44 %) within the final two years, a top-10 fee within the NFL.
I will be the primary one to let you know that his NFL-record 5 game-winning drives by way of seven video games in 2022 was a fluke. However, whereas he could not have been touchdown haymakers and Saquon Barkley was actually doing his justifiable share of the heavy lifting, credit score Jones for taking good care of the ball and including worth together with his legs. His 5 turnovers within the fourth-quarter and OT within the final two years is similar quantity as Joe Burrow. He additionally led a game-winning drive on the highway within the postseason towards the Vikings in 2022.
7. Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow solidified his standing as “Joe Cool” with thrilling wins in every of his first three matchups towards Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. His dialog charges on game-tying or go-ahead drive chances are high at the very least 40 % throughout the board: common season profession, playoff profession and in 2022-23. He is prime 11 amongst present starters in all three classes.
His clutch resume is not good although. The Bengals failed to attain of their final 5 drives of the Tremendous Bowl loss to the Rams. In addition they failed to attain on their remaining two drives of the 2022 AFC Championship sport loss to the Chiefs.
6. Dak Prescott
I do not belief Dak Prescott to place the Cowboys on his again within the playoffs, or actually shine vs. the highest competitors, however he additionally places up MVP-type numbers, which is why he is excessive on this checklist, however not within the prime 5.
He was 5 of 9 on game-tying or go-ahead drive possibilities late in video games final yr, and led three game-winning drives in primetime vs. the Chargers, Seahawks and Lions (even when the Detroit sport ought to have ended in a different way). The playoff heroics have not been there although as he is 3 of 9 with these clutch alternatives.
5. Jared Goff
Jared Goff has extra clutch moments in 2023 than you in all probability bear in mind. He ranked third in game-tying/go-ahead drive conversion fee within the fourth quarter and time beyond regulation final yr (6-of-10, 60 %), and third in EPA per play in these conditions.
He led a game-winning drive on opening evening in Kansas Metropolis. Outlasted Justin Herbert and the Chargers in a monitor meet. He led a 12-point comeback vs. the Bears within the remaining 5 minutes and had a game-winning drive within the playoffs vs. the Buccaneers.
It is not all sunshine and rainbows, although. He was 3 of 13 passing when pressured within the NFC Championship loss vs. the 49ers, the place Detroit blew a 17-point halftime lead. His struggles vs. stress (twentieth in EPA per play when pressured in 2023) restrict his upside within the clutch, to an extent.
4. Josh Allen
Josh Allen is prime 10 in each standards talked about off the highest, together with fifth in clutch drive dialog fee in each 2023 and for his profession. He led three game-winning drives because the Payments completed final season on a five-game win streak and stole the AFC East title from Miami.
And earlier than you query his clutch credentials, simply bear in mind the heroics in a 42-36 loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs a number of years in the past.
3. Jalen Hurts
All anybody will bear in mind is the Eagles historic collapse down the stretch final yr, however I am not wanting previous Hurts’ excellence within the clutch. He had six complete touchdowns and 0 turnovers on potential game-tying or go-ahead drives within the fourth quarter and time beyond regulation by way of 12 weeks final yr, culminating with a famous person efficiency in an OT win vs the Payments. He did not have many alternatives within the clutch to finish the yr as Philadelphia was getting blown out. He additionally gave Philadelphia an opportunity to win Tremendous Bowl LVII with a game-tying drive earlier than the Chiefs answered.
2. C.J. Stroud
No person was higher within the clutch than C.J. Stroud final yr. The Texans transformed on 6 of 8 game-tying or go-ahead drive possibilities late with Stroud below heart. His numbers in these conditions had been phenomenal. 77% completion fee, 10.7 yards per try and a 139.5 passer score. The most effective spotlight was this game-winning landing go from rookie-to-rookie to cap Stroud’s 470-yard, five-touchdown sport.
1. Patrick Mahomes
The factors I laid out above says C.J. Stroud is essentially the most clutch quarterback within the NFL proper now, however I am making an exception and giving Patrick Mahomes the crown for 2 causes.
1) Pattern dimension alert. Stroud has solely performed one season and has had eight game-tying or go-ahead drive alternatives.
2). Playoff numbers. Because of this Mahomes is the reply to the query I posed on the prime. Who would you like with the ball in his palms with the sport on the road? It is Mahomes and it isn’t even shut. He’s an absurd 15 of 21 changing potential game-tying or go-ahead drives within the fourth quarter and time beyond regulation of his playoff profession. That is the very best conversion fee (71 %) of any QB since at the very least 2000 (min. 10 drives), nicely above Tom Brady who’s second (53 %). If we had data of this stat previous to that, I am positive it could say it is the very best fee in NFL historical past, too.
After Mahomes and co. went 3-for-3 on these drives to beat the 49ers within the Tremendous Bowl, I laid out the stats for why he’s the finest “nearer” in sports activities since Michael Jordan. Jordan is the gold customary for clutch play within the NBA, making 9 of 18 on potential game-tying or go-ahead pictures within the remaining 24 seconds of his playoff profession.
Mahomes is the gold customary within the NFL and all the pieces about his playoff resume screams clutch.