Editor’s Be aware: That is the ultimate version of a five-part collection that dives deep into NFL quarterbacks making sudden, huge enchancment, which we have dubbed “Quarterback Leap Week.” This is what’s been printed to this point:
Buying and selling for veteran quarterbacks was the plain play for NFL groups in 2022, after the Buccaneers and Rams had gained Tremendous Bowls of their first seasons with Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford, respectively.
So in fact it utterly backfired in 2023 for the groups who acquired Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson. All 5 quarterbacks ranked twenty eighth or worse in EPA per play amongst 38 quarterbacks with 200+ motion performs final season.
Mayfield obtained redemption in 2023, posting career-highs in passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28) in his first season with the Buccaneers. The spectacular comeback season earned him a brand new contract (three years value as much as $100 million) and may give hope to veterans in new locations in 2024.
This group can even search to comply with within the footsteps of among the best leaps by veteran quarterbacks of their first season with a brand new workforce.
Drew Bledsoe shook off his notorious harm with the Patriots in 2001 to supply with the Payments in 2002. Drew Brees burst onto the scene with New Orleans in 2006. Brett Favre almost reached the Tremendous Bowl with Minnesota in 2009. Ryan Fitzpatrick almost led the Jets to the playoffs in 2015. “Fitzmagic” remains to be the one participant in Jets historical past with 30 landing passes in a season. Case Keenum led the Vikings to a 13-3 document in 2017 out of seemingly nowhere. Ryan Tannehill led the NFL in passer ranking and introduced the Titans to an AFC Championship recreation in 2019.
Quarterbacks to make leap in first 12 months with new workforce since 2000
- 2023 Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers): career-high 4,044 move yards and 28 Move TD (gained playoff recreation)
- 2021 Matthew Stafford (Rams): Gained Tremendous Bowl (4,886 Move yards & 41 Move TD in common season)
- 2020 Tom Brady (Buccaneers): Gained Tremendous Bowl (40 Move TD after 24 in ultimate season with Patriots)
- 2019 Ryan Tannehill (Titans): Reached AFC title recreation and led NFL in yards per try and passer ranking
- 2017 Case Keenum (Vikings): 11-3 document, 22 Move TD and seven Int with Vikings
- 2015 Tyrod Taylor (Payments): 20 Move TD, 6 Int and 568 Rush yards in 13 begins
- 2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets): 10-6 document and franchise-record 31 Move TD
- 2009 Brett Favre (Vikings): Reached NFC Championship and obtained MVP vote at age 40 (33 Move TD and seven Int)
- 2008 Chad Pennington (Dolphins): Led NFL in Comp pct and gained AFC East title
- 2006 Drew Brees (Saints): Led NFL in Move yards and gained playoff recreation
- 2003 Jake Plummer (Broncos): 9-2 document, 15 Move TD and seven Int
- 2002 Drew Bledsoe (Payments): Franchise-record 4,359 Move yards (on the time)
I am together with Aaron Rodgers on the record of veteran quarterbacks in new locations that would take a leap in 2024. Rodgers performed 4 snaps final 12 months so a mulligan appears honest for this train. Different candidates embrace Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Gardner Minshew and Sam Darnold:
Aaron Rodgers with Jets (doubtless)
We’re about to get an enormous case research on veteran quarterbacks coming back from torn Achilles between Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. I will double down on my prediction from final 12 months and say Rodgers will take a leap from his ultimate season with the Packers. A torn Achilles did not decelerate Kevin Durant and it isn’t going to decelerate Rodgers, even at age 40. It is getting powerful to disregard all of the noise off the sector, however there’s nonetheless too many positives to disclaim Rodgers and the Jets. He’ll play with a top-10 protection, a WR1 in Garrett Wilson, plus reunite with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Let’s not neglect New York added wideouts Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley, too. Moreover, the Jets offensive line has improved after it was the workforce’s greatest gap (outdoors of quarterback) final 12 months. It is a significantly better total state of affairs than his final 12 months in Inexperienced Bay, so let’s examine if he can keep wholesome in 2024.
Russell Wilson with Steelers (possibly)
I wrote final month about how I count on the Steelers offense to take a step ahead with Russell Wilson coming into 2024 as the favourite over Justin Fields for his or her beginning quarterback job. How may they not enhance within the post-Kenny Pickett/Matt Canada period? Russell Wilson says he feels ‘revived’ with Pittsburgh after a disappointing stretch in Denver the place he ranked twenty third in EPA per play final 12 months. There’s undoubtedly some attention-grabbing parallels between his early Seahawks days and what Pittsburgh’s offense may appear like with Arthur Smith. They need to be a smashmouth workforce with nice protection and the possibility for explosive performs from Wilson to George Pickens. I nonetheless assume it is extra doubtless we see Wilson repeat final 12 months’s efficiency as a mean to below-average starter as he enters his thirteenth season.
Kirk Cousins with Falcons (unlikely)
Cousins was high 10 within the NFL in EPA per play, landing passes and passing yards earlier than tearing his Achilles in Week 8 final 12 months. I feel it is protected to say he isn’t going to raise from a top-10 passer to an MVP contender going from the Vikings to the Falcons. Atlanta ought to actually take a leap going from Ridder to Cousins, however Cousins is taking a step down in offensive infrastructure, albeit a small one. I like Drake London and Bijan Robinson, however there’s just one Justin Jefferson.
Gardner Minshew with Raiders (unlikely)
Gardner Minshew was a Professional Bowl choice in 2023. Not a typo. It comes with an asterisk after he was a substitute for Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. It isn’t egregious like Tyler Huntley’s 2022 choice when he began 4 video games, however Minshew actually wasn’t a Professional Bowl-caliber participant in 2023. He was a mean starter, rating 18th in EPA per play whereas main the Colts inside a win of a playoff berth.
That looks like the ceiling for Minshew once more in 2024 if he wins the beginning quarterback competitors with Aidan O’Connell in Las Vegas. It isn’t unimaginable for Minshew to have a profession season. Have a look at Case Keenum with the Vikings or Ryan Fitzpatrick with the Jets. He could have Davante Adams and Brock Bowers to throw the ball to, however it’s nonetheless a longshot.
Sam Darnold with Vikings (unlikely)
I need to say Sam Darnold can take a leap in Minnesota with Kevin O’Connell at head coach, coupled with an array of offensive weapons that features Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. He has the expertise to take action, however it’s unrealistic to count on Darnold to carry down the beginning job. The stress might be immense to play J.J. McCarthy, particularly when Darnold begins turning the ball over. He has the best turnover charge of any quarterback with not less than 1,500 move makes an attempt since 2018. Additionally, think about that quarterbacks drafted within the first spherical common 10 begins as rookies within the final decade. In that very same span, 17 of twenty-two quarterbacks chosen within the high 10 began not less than 10 video games as rookies.
That is a wrap on ‘Quarterback Leap Week.’ The wealthy custom of quarterback leaps ought to proceed in 2024, that includes loads of candidates with alternatives to develop, or enhance with new coaches, teammates and even space codes.
Should you have been studying ‘Quarterback Leap Week’ all week, I am selecting six quarterbacks to take an enormous step ahead in 2024 for quite a lot of causes. Aaron Rodgers (new workforce, mainly), Patrick Mahomes (higher large receiver room), Kyler Murray (higher large receiver room), Justin Herbert (new head coach), Bryce Younger (growth) and Caleb Williams (historic rookie 12 months incoming).