Even earlier than a single snap of the NFL season is performed, there are expectations for every crew, some being a lot increased than others. There are all the time positive bets to make the playoffs and positive bets of groups which can be predicted to flounder.
Then the season truly begins and loads of that goes out the window. Yearly there are groups that far exceed the expectations set within the offseason and groups that fall flat of how followers and media believed they’d do.
With coaching camp across the nook and the 2024 season below three months away, we requested a panel of our CBS Sports activities NFL writers: Shanna McCarriston, Cody Benjamin, Tyler Sullivan, Garrett Podell, Bryan DeArdo and Jordan Dajani to offer their predictions for which groups will shock folks with how nicely they carry out and which is able to shock folks with how they battle.
Here’s a take a look at who we expect will exceed expectations and who will underperform, together with the crew’s document final yr and their largest positive factors and losses this offseason:
Groups that can exceed expectations
McCarriston — Chargers: Possibly I have not discovered my lesson from the previous, however I’m as soon as once more relying on the Chargers to do one thing with their proficient, well-paid quarterback. They lastly have a reliable head coach in Jim Harbaugh and whereas he could not have made as many huge splashes as anticipated this offseason, I can see him main the Chargers to a profitable document and dare I say, presumably a playoff bid.
They fired Brandon Staley late within the 2023 season and changed him with a confirmed winner. The Chargers have had excessive expectations prior to now and failed to satisfy them, however I consider this would be the yr they’re a crew that provides their opponents an even bigger problem and positively will rack up extra wins than final yr.
Their offensive losses will take a while to regulate to, however saving cash to lose getting older gamers may help them ultimately. Holding defensive finish Joey Bosa and linebacker Khalil Mack in L.A. at a less expensive worth was big for a crew that wants that veteran presence and expertise on protection.
They will not win the division, for the reason that AFC West consists of the defending champion Chiefs, however they’ve the simplest energy of schedule within the AFC, which is able to assist them heaps.
Final yr’s document: 5-12
Offseason losses: RB Austin Ekeler, LB Kenneth Murray, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams
Offseason acquisitions: Head coach Jim Harbaugh, T Joe Alt, RB J.Okay. Dobbins, CB Kristian Fulton, RB Gus Edwards
Over/Underneath win complete: 9.0
Benjamin — Vikings: The Minnesota Vikings could not have a clear-cut quarterback for the 2024 season, or a minimum of a confirmed plan for each Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy, however the expertise stage round them below Kevin O’Connell is top-notch. Throw in Brian Flores’ protection, which has a probably deeper cross rush, and this membership might muddy up an NFC North race between the Detroit Lions and Inexperienced Bay Packers.
Final yr’s document: 7-10
Offseason losses: QB Kirk Cousins, DE Danielle Hunter
Offseason acquisitions: QB J.J. McCarthy, RB Aaron Jones
Over/below win complete: 7.0
Sullivan — Jets: I feel persons are sleeping on New York. Sure, Aaron Rodgers is exasperating at instances, however he is a four-time MVP. Even when he’s 80% of his former self coming off of his torn Achilles final season, that is nonetheless the most effective quarterback play the Jets have had in a long time. Pair that with a stellar protection, a refurbished offensive line, and famous person weapons like Garrett Wilson and Breece Corridor, you’ve the makings of a really harmful crew. Additionally they have the fourth-easiest schedule within the league primarily based on their opponents’ projected win complete, which makes them an outdoor menace for the No. 1 seed.
Final yr’s document: 7-10
Offseason losses: RB Dalvin Cook dinner
Offseason acquisitions: WR Mike Williams, DT Javon Kinlaw, OT Olu Fashanu
Over/below win complete: 10.0
Podell — Packers: The Packers earned the excellence of being the youngest crew to win a postseason recreation for the reason that 1970 NFL/AFL merger (common age of 25 years and 214 days) following their 48-32 demolition of the NFC’s No. 2 seed, the Dallas Cowboys, within the wild card spherical. They led that recreation 27-0, and quarterback Jordan Love set the Packers’ single recreation playoff information for passer score (157.2) and yards per cross try (13) after carving up Dallas’ top-five protection for 272 passing yards and three touchdowns whereas finishing 16 of his 21 passes.
Inexperienced Bay practically toppled the San Francisco 49ers, the No. 1 seed and eventual NFC champs, on the street in a 24-21 defeat — a recreation wherein they led for many of the night time. Since, they’ve aggressively added to their roster with the signings of two-time Professional Bowl working again Josh Jacobs (4 years, $48 million) and Professional Soccer Focus’ finest security in protection (91.2 protection grade) in Xavier McKinney (4 years, $67 million). Additionally they addressed key positions of want by firing Joe Barry and hiring a extra aggressive, man protection primarily based defensive coordinator in Jeff Hafley on high of drafting nicely to plug spots at offensive line, linebacker and security. The Packers got here away with USC working again Marshawn Lloyd within the third spherical, a participant some considered because the draft’s high working again.
In abstract, the Packers might take a giant leap to true Tremendous Bowl competition with the youngest crew in soccer getting a yr older and since normal supervisor Brian Gutekunst did what he wanted to do that offseason.
Final yr’s document: 9-8
Offseason losses: RB Aaron Jones, OT David Bakhtiari
Offseason acquisitions: SAF Xavier McKinney, RB Josh Jacobs
Over/below win complete: 9.5
DeArdo — Commanders: I personally love nearly every little thing the Commanders did this offseason, particularly the hiring of Dan Quinn as head coach, Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator, the free agent signings of Austin Ekeler, Tyler Biadasz and Bobby Wagner (amongst others) and the choice of rookie QB Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 general decide. Do not sleep on D.C. in 2024.
Final yr’s document: 4-13
Offseason losses: QB Jake Fromm, TE Logan Thomas
Offseason acquisitions: QB Jayden Daniels, head coach Dan Quinn, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, RB Austin Ekeler, LB Bobby Wagner, TE Zach Ertz
Over/below win complete: 6.5
Dajani — Titans: Some followers in Nashville have declared this offseason probably the most thrilling offseason in Titans franchise historical past. Mike Vrabel was changed by the offensive-minded Brian Callahan, who has a younger, big-armed quarterback to develop in Will Levis. That growth could possibly be expedited by the strikes Tennessee made in free company, signing middle Lloyd Cushenberry, working again Tony Pollard and creating what seems to be among the best WR trios within the league with Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Boyd. Levis goes to have a shot to show he is the man in an offense that ought to characteristic loads of passing. What is the Titans’ ceiling if he is a reputable QB?
Defensively, the Titans employed a brand new coordinator in Dennard Wilson, who has excited everybody together with his strategy to that facet of the ball. Tennessee’s cross protection hasn’t completed within the high half of the league since 2018, however can have an opportunity now that it added cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed. Might the Titans shock in 2024?
Final yr’s document: 6-11
Offseason losses: RB Derrick Henry, head coach Mike Vrabel
Offseason acquisitions: Head coach Brian Callahan, WR Calvin Ridley, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Tony Pollard
Over/below win complete: 6.5
Groups that can underperform
McCarriston — Payments: Some could take a look at the Payments as a profitable crew as a result of sure, at a look, a crew that will get to the playoffs and wins divisional titles is a profitable crew. For me, they’re some of the disappointing groups within the league, as a result of their ceiling is a lot increased than the place they’re reaching. Making one convention championship within the Josh Allen Period is the definition of underperforming and whereas it’s a troublesome street by means of the Chiefs, it has been a historical past of small errors and unpreparedness that resulted in these losses.
Do I feel the Payments will probably be a playoff crew subsequent yr? Completely, however I don’t consider they may meet the excessive expectations which can be set for them for so long as Allen is working the offense. With a wage cap to handle, they misplaced loads of key gamers and there will probably be an adjustment interval as they give the impression of being to switch holes left on all sides of the ball.
Once you toss in taking part in a robust Miami Dolphins crew and a probably revitalized New York Jets crew lead by Aaron Rodgers twice every, as nicely being tied for the sixth hardest schedule within the league, we might see some critical struggles from a crew that has already proven some shakiness.
Final yr’s document: 11-6
Offseason losses: WR Stefon Diggs, C Mitch Morse, S Jordan Poyer, WR Gabe Davis, CB Tre’Davious White
Offseason acquisitions: WR Keon Coleman
Over/below win complete: 10.5
Benjamin — Colts: The Indianapolis Colts are a preferred decide to take a leap ahead after Anthony Richardson’s scorching begin to an abbreviated rookie season. Coach Shane Steichen actually appears reduce out for the job. However Richardson’s fashion of play lent itself to a number of accidents in a brief time frame, and his crew is not precisely loaded with confirmed play-makers on the perimeter, each offensively and defensively.
Final yr’s document: 9-8
Offseason losses: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zach Moss, WR Isaiah McKenzie
Offseason acquisitions: QB Joe Flacco, DL Raekwon Davis, DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell
Over/Underneath win complete: 8.5
Sullivan — Ravens: A yr in the past, I had Baltimore as my decide to come back out of the AFC and attain the Tremendous Bowl. I am singing a unique tune now. Presently, they personal the second-best odds to win the AFC solely trailing the Chiefs, and I really feel like which may be a bit too wealthy. Their division ought to be extra aggressive with Cincinnati getting Joe Burrow again, and if that is the bar we’re holding them to (profitable the AFC North), I can see a situation the place they arrive up brief. The street can be fairly tough for them this yr as they personal the fourth-toughest energy of schedule primarily based on their opponents’ projected win complete. Additionally, do not underrate the departure of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald and linebacker Patrick Queen this offseason both.
Final yr’s document: 13-4
Offseason losses: OL Kevin Zeitler, RB Gus Edwards, S Geno Stone, LB Patrick Queen, LB Jadeveon Clowney
Offseason acquisitions: RB Derrick Henry
Over/Underneath win complete: 11.0
Podell — Browns: The Cleveland Browns scratched and clawed their manner into the postseason in 2023 on the energy of the No. 1 complete protection (270.2 complete yards per recreation allowed) in the whole league powered by Defensive Participant of the Yr edge rusher Myles Garrett. Cleveland grew to become simply the second crew ever to make the playoffs with 5 completely different beginning quarterbacks, becoming a member of the 1984 Chicago Bears.
Nevertheless, Deshaun Watson coming back from having surgical procedure on his throwing shoulder could also be extra of a unfavourable than a constructive: he has ranked thirty fifth or worst in completion proportion (59.8%, forty first), passing yards per try (6.5 (thirty sixth) and passer score (81.7, thirty seventh) amongst 45 certified quarterbacks since 2022 when he grew to become a Cleveland Brown. Plus, four-time Professional Bowl working again Nick Chubb is making an attempt to return from a grotesque knee harm wherein he suffered the next: a torn left MCL, meniscus tear and {a partially} torn ACL. Naturally, Chubb required two separate surgical procedures final fall to repair his knee.
It would not be stunning if Cleveland’s offense would not maintain up their finish of the cut price as soon as once more in 2024, which might result in the Browns lacking the postseason if their protection would not convey its A-plus recreation each single week.
Final yr’s document: 11-6
Offseason losses: Offensive line coach Invoice Callahan, LB Anthony Walker
Offseason acquisitions: RB Nyheim Hines, QB Jameis Winston, RB D’Onta Foreman
Over/Underneath win complete: 8.5
DeArdo — Bears: Chicago’s wins over/below has been seen at 8.5, which appears a bit excessive. I do know that the Bears went 7-10 final yr, and — a minimum of on paper — Chicago is a a lot better outfit in 2024. Whereas each of these issues are true, I am leery in terms of placing too excessive of expectations on a rookie beginning quarterback, which is what Caleb Williams will probably be this season. Add in the truth that they play in one of many NFL’s hardest divisions is one more reason why I am hesitant to purchase an excessive amount of Bears inventory this season. Speak to me in 2025, after Williams has had a full season below his belt.
Final yr’s document: 7-10
Offseason losses: QB Justin Fields, NT Justin Jones, C Cody Whitehair
Offseason acquisitions: QB Caleb Williams, RB D’Andre Swift, S Kevin Byard, WR Rome Odunze
Over/Underneath win complete: 9.0
Dajani — Bears: Caleb Williams could find yourself being a star, however will he hit the bottom working? Chicago has a head coach recent off the new seat in Matt Eberflus, and a brand new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron. Quarterbacks chosen No. 1 general have not surpassed six wins of their first seasons since Andrew Luck in 2012, and the NFC North is not precisely a cakewalk. The Bears Over/Underneath win complete is about at 9. Is that too excessive?