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Saturday, April 20, 2024

Nook Picks, soccer finest bets, odds: A lot of objectives in Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund Der Klassiker, extra

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The worldwide break is over for many of us, however not all. Managers like Antonio Conte and Julian Nagelsmann nonetheless don’t have anything to do that weekend after being fired over the break. The Conte transfer wasn’t troublesome to see coming. We have seen the Conte cycle many instances. As soon as he goes into calling out possession throughout press convention mode, you realize it is solely a matter of time, significantly when it is forward of a global break, a time at all times ripe for a managerial change.

What wasn’t as predictable was the Nagelsmann transfer. With Bayern shedding its ultimate match earlier than the break to Bayer Leverkusen and falling out of first place within the Bundesliga, perhaps it should not have been as large a shock because it was, however let’s not overlook Bayern spent roughly $27 million to purchase Nagelsmann from RB Leipzig two years in the past. Whereas Bayern are essentially the most highly effective group in Germany, they have not been a Manchester Metropolis/PSG/Barcelona type of membership. The German giants do not throw cash round as if it is meaningless. It was a substantial funding within the supervisor.

To fireside him so quickly felt like an overreaction to me, however perhaps Bayern wished Thomas Tuchel badly and have been nervous he’d take the Tottenham job. Or perhaps Bayern are seeing themselves slip additional and additional behind the English powers and are getting nervous. I do not know. Perhaps it will be the fitting transfer, perhaps it will not change something, and we’ll even have drama within the Bundesliga race.

We should always know quickly! In spite of everything, first-place Dortmund is heading to Munich this weekend to face Bayern and Thomas Tuchel, and that is the place we start Nook Picks. All odds by way of Caesars Sportsbook.

Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund

Date: Saturday, April 1 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET | Watch: ABC

Is Thomas Tuchel the person who will lead Bayern again to the highest of the Bundesliga and lengthen the streak of league titles to 11 straight? Yeah, most likely. Nagelsmann most likely would’ve too. That is what’s humorous in regards to the scenario. Bayern are in second, however they’re nonetheless the very best group within the league and have 9 video games left to play. Is Tuchel the person to guide Bayern to a different Champions League title? Most likely not this season, no, however no person is. That mentioned, this being Tuchel’s first match does cloud issues a bit as a result of if there is a particular cause he was employed, it is most likely to repair Bayern’s protection. It has been dangerous all 12 months (for Bayern, which have allowed the fewest objectives within the Bundesliga, anyway).

Any time a brand new supervisor takes over, it’s essential to put together for the Proper The Ship Match defensively when the group focuses on retaining a clear sheet and nothing else. Nevertheless, I am unsure that is potential within the Bundesliga, neither is it potential for a low-scoring match that includes Dortmund. Dortmund have been a multitude defensively for some time, regardless of the outcomes. They’ve allowed solely eight objectives of their final 10 matches, however they’ve finished so with an xG (anticipated objectives) allowed of 14.5. You are not going to get that fortunate towards Bayern. As is commonly the case, I would not be shocked if Bayern go over this complete by itself, nor would I be shocked if Dortmund will get one or two of their very own as a result of I do not imagine Bayern’s defensive struggles are strictly associated to its general defending (not having Manuel Neuer issues). The Decide: Over 3.5 (-115)

West Ham United vs. Southampton

Date: Sunday, April 2 | Time: 9 a.m. ET | Watch: USA

Featured Sport | West Ham United vs. Southampton

The battle to keep away from relegation within the Premier League is fascinating. Crystal Palace — one other group that lately fired its supervisor — sit in twelfth place within the league with 27 factors. That leaves Palace solely three factors forward of 18th-place West Ham down within the relegation zone. That is 9 groups — 45% of the league — inside one dangerous results of being at risk of happening. That may result in a number of tense matches down the stretch like this one. West Ham is in 18th and is dwelling towards Southampton, who’re in final place, but a win away from probably being protected (for a couple of days, anyway). Sadly for Southampton, I do not imagine that win comes this weekend.

Earlier than the World Cup break, West Ham suffered dangerous dwelling losses to Crystal Palace and Leicester Metropolis. The Hammers then misplaced their first dwelling match following the break to Brentford 2-0. They have not misplaced any of the 4 they’ve performed since, outscoring their opponents 8-2. West Ham have been higher at dwelling statistically than the outcomes recommend all 12 months, and now it appears the performances are bearing fruit. In the meantime, Southampton have achieved a lot better outcomes on the highway than the metrics recommend they need to have. Their 0.93 factors per match on the highway is tied with Leicester for eleventh, however their xG differential of -7.7 away from dwelling ranks sixteenth. These items are inclined to stability out over the course of a season. The Decide: West Ham (-140)

Napoli vs. AC Milan

Date: Sunday, April 2 | Time: 2:45 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

This is not a numbers play for me as a lot as a intestine play. Napoli have not clinched Serie A but, however the odds of blowing a 19-point lead with 9 matches left are minuscule. At this level, Napoli’s greatest focus will likely be on the Champions League, the place it is slated to play this identical AC Milan group within the quarterfinals. And that is the place the gamesmanship comes into play right here. Napoli have introduced that main scorer Victor Osimhen won’t play on this match and is probably going out subsequent weekend towards Lecce after selecting up a thigh damage. They’ve even mentioned his standing for the Champions League match on 4/12 is uncertain. How a lot of that’s the reality, and the way a lot is resting Osimhen for the Champions League? My suspicion is there’s extra weight in that latter situation.

In the meantime, Milan wish to beat Napoli within the Champions League but additionally needs to make sure they play in subsequent 12 months’s Champions League. They are not going to win Serie A, however Milan is one among 5 groups preventing for the three Champions League spots Napoli will not end in. Seven factors separate Lazio, Inter, Roma, Atalanta and Milan. Each match down the stretch will likely be essential for these golf equipment. So, given the motivation for these groups, and the dearth of Osimhen, Milan look like a strong guess this weekend. That mentioned, Napoli continues to be an impressive group, so I might relatively guess Milan to get a outcome than the outright win. The Decide: Milan or Draw (-107)

Weekend Parlay

It is a smaller parlay this week, however it pays a good value at +107.

  • Arsenal (-390)
  • Lille (-270)
  • Actual Madrid (-500)

Report

Models

League Play

51-41

+17.90

Champions League

10-6

+4.41

Total 61-47 +22.31

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