NFL historical past of the quarterback leap: Who made the bounce in 2023, a take a look at each QB who has finished it since 2000

The largest query mark getting into final yr was Jordan Love. Would he proceed the Packers’ run of MVP-caliber quarterbacks, settle in as a mean starter or utterly face plant. Certain sufficient, he took a leap to superstardom, culminating with a blowout win in Dallas within the postseason. Now he is on the doorstep of a brand new contract that’ll certainly pay him over $50 million per yr. 

Love’s season is without doubt one of the best quarterback leaps in latest reminiscence and in addition illustrates how fascinating and impactful the quarterback leap could be. Yearly a couple of quarterbacks burst onto the scene or enhance their play to a level that may change the fortunes of a franchise (and their private fortunes). 

As an NFL historical past buff and somebody who likes to nerd out, I made a decision to search out each quarterback leap for the reason that flip of the century (2000) in the hunt for the most typical elements that linked the leaps collectively as we look forward to one other season of quarterback leaps in 2024.

Quarterback leap standards:

• There must be a statistical baseline. I began my search with quarterbacks who jumped at the least 1 / 4 of the league’s certified passers from one season to the subsequent by way of anticipated factors added (EPA) per play. EPA takes into consideration worth added on all performs, from passes, sacks, scrambles and designed runs. It captures a quarterback’s whole affect higher than a conventional stat like passer score.

• I used the attention take a look at to refine the checklist, including and subtracting quarterbacks from there. Numbers had been a terrific place to begin however not the tip all, be all. For instance, there are quarterbacks who certified for the passer leaderboard, however clearly did not have sufficient enjoying time for anybody to consider they made “the leap.” 

• Historically, you would possibly join a quarterback leap to gamers of their first few seasons within the league. I checked out leaps of all flavors. I included Aaron Rodgers in 2020. He clearly took a step ahead after the Jordan Love choose, profitable back-to-back MVPs, following a couple of common seasons. 

Historical past of the quarterback leap

Now that I’ve established the bottom guidelines, let’s get to the great things. There have been 97 whole quarterback leaps since 2000, which averages out to roughly 4 per season. There’s been at the least one leap in each season over that span, and three leaps in 22 of the previous 24 seasons. 

Feast your eyes on the checklist. You may most likely keep in mind a few of these seasons, like Ryan Tannehill main the Titans to an AFC Championship recreation after a interval of obscurity with the Dolphins. Do you recall Case Keenum and his season main as much as the “Minneapolis Miracle?” You undoubtedly keep in mind the sophomore jumps made by Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. My private favorites embody Andy Dalton in 2015, when the “Pink Rifle” made a run at MVP earlier than getting damage, and Drew Brees in 2006, when he broke out with the Saints. Plus, Jalen Hurts made a quantum leap in 2022.

Quarterback leaps since 2000

A trio of younger stars led a bunch of leaps final season:

One fascinating component of the quarterback leap is sustainability. Since 2000, simply over half of the quarterbacks to take a leap made a further Professional Bowl of their profession.  Quarterbacks like Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum and Mitchell Trubisky made leaps that turned out to be extra like one-hit wonders. It’s going to be fascinating to see which 2023 leap seems to be unsustainable. 

Largest elements behind quarterback leaps

It has been stated that in an effort to look ahead, you must look again. So for the remainder of this week I will be utilizing the historical past of quarterback leaps to mission who will make a bounce in 2024.

As I chosen all 97 quarterback leaps since 2000, I additionally picked out the largest motive for every leap. The first elements fell into 4 buckets. Here is a take a look at what’s developing within the ‘Quarterback Leap Week’ schedule:

Quarterback Leap Week

Tuesday: Which younger quarterback is the subsequent to make the leap?

The most typical motive for a leap wasn’t a brand new star teammate or massive change on the teaching workers, it is easy quarterback growth. You’ve got most likely heard of the 12 months 2 leap earlier than. There’s been a 12 months 2 leap in six of the previous seven seasons. Suppose Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy. This yr’s candidates embody Bryce Younger, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. In fact, growth is not simply restricted to 12 months 2 gamers. Different younger quarterbacks who can crush expectations embody rookies like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. 

Wednesday: Which teaching change will spur a leap?

Teaching modifications had been the second-biggest motive for a leap. A brand new coach was the first issue with roughly one quarter of all leaps, together with Lamar Jackson getting a brand new offensive coordinator (Todd Monken) final yr. Leap candidates in 2024 embody Geno Smith (new head coach Mike Macdonald) and Justin Herbert (with Jim Harbaugh). 

Thursday: Which offseason transfer will result in a leap?

They are saying the NFL is a copycat league and the brand new pattern is buying and selling for veteran move catchers, particularly those that can velocity up the event of latest quarterbacks. Getting top-flight vast receivers labored wonders for Josh Allen (Stefon Diggs), Joe Burrow (Ja’Marr Chase), Jalen Hurts (A.J. Brown), Tua Tagovailoa (Tyreek Hill) and Lamar Jackson (Zay Flowers).  It is undoubtedly a brand new fad, as a quarterback made a leap due primarily to an improved supporting forged in eight of the previous 10 seasons. Leap candidates this yr embody Daniel Jones (Malik Nabers), Patrick Mahomes (Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy), Jalen Hurts (Saquon Barkley), Kyler Murray (Marvin Harrison Jr.) and C.J. Stroud (Stefon Diggs). 

Friday: Which outdated face in a brand new place will enhance essentially the most?

The new pattern that bounced again after a depressing 2022 was veteran quarterback in new locations. Baker Mayfield was in a position to resurrect his profession in Tampa Bay, received a playoff recreation and obtained a three-year deal. Final season did not work out so sizzling for Aaron Rodgers, however let’s hit the reset button as 2023 was a wash. Different 2024 leap candidates embody Russell Wilson and Justin Fields (each for the Steelers), Kirk Cousins (Falcons) and Gardner Minshew (Raiders).