Although Opening Day as we all know it is not till March 28, the 2024 Main League Baseball common season really begins in lower than per week with a two-game sequence between the Padres and Dodgers in South Korea. That is enjoyable. Talking of enjoyable, let’s dive in on some playing. Particularly, I am going to zero in on participant props proper now. For any new gamblers on the market, this implies selecting awards and stat leaders, principally.
I am going to run via every main award and a few chosen stats. I am going to give the highest favorites, present my play amongst mentioned favorites after which decide a long-shot candidate that is smart as effectively. There are such a lot of totally different avenues by which to gamble today with so many alternative websites having totally different odds and so many gamers accessible to be performed, there isn’t any approach that is an exhaustive checklist. For instance, there are odds on who finally ends up with probably the most outfield assists. In the event you like a play that is not listed right here, go guess it by yourself.
Let’s dive in.
AL MVP
Favorites: Aaron Decide +600, Juan Soto +600, Julio Rodríguez +900, Yordan Alvarez +900, Corey Seager +1200
My play: Julio Rodríguez +900. I actually suppose that is the complete season the place Julio places all of it collectively. No, he hasn’t really completed that but. When he does, it’s going to be an 8ish-WAR season and he’ll win the {hardware}.
Lengthy-shot play(s): There are a good variety of good ones right here. Mike Trout is +2200, as are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and José Ramírez. Marcus Semien, who completed third final yr, is +4000. Adolis García is +6000.
I like Gunnar Henderson at +2000, although. He began actually slowly on the plate final season and nonetheless ended up ending eighth in MVP voting and had 6.2 WAR. The Orioles seem like a playoff group once more and that is Henderson’s first full season. He is nonetheless solely 23. He is additionally able to 30+ doubles and homers with 100+ RBI and runs and 10+ triples whereas stealing 15 bases and enjoying excellent protection at a premium place. There’s an actual likelihood he might win it this yr.
If +2000 would not depend as an extended shot in your e book, gimme Adolis García.
In the event you’re considering extra, go have a look. The percentages I am go all the way in which right down to +50000 with names like Brent Rooker, Bo Naylor and Wyatt Langford.
NL MVP
Favorites: Ronald Acuña Jr. +500, Mookie Betts +700, Shohei Ohtani +850, Freddie Freeman +900, Fernando Tatis Jr. +900
My play: Fernando Tatis Jr. +900. By means of three seasons within the majors (solely 273 video games), Tatis hit .293/.369/.596 (160 OPS+) with 162-game averages of 33 doubles, 5 triples, 48 homers, 116 RBI, 125 runs, 31 steals and seven.5 WAR. He was ages 20-22. He missed all of 2022 as a consequence of shoulder and wrist accidents along with a PED suspension. He returned final season after having had surgical procedure to restore each accidents and with important rust whereas studying a brand new place in proper area. He was nonetheless nice, however not distinctive. He’ll explode this yr.
Lengthy-shot play(s): I just like the Bryce Harper +1200 odds, however these cannot be counted as long-shot odds. Trea Turner and Austin Riley at +1800 are most likely in an identical boat. Corbin Carroll at +2000 is engaging. A number of the larger names with longer odds (Manny Machado +2900, Francisco Lindor +3000, Paul Goldschmidt +3300, Cody Bellinger +5000, Nolan Arenado +5000) aren’t catching my eye proper now. I really do not suppose anybody under Carroll at +2000 can win.
I am going to go along with Harper, but when +1200 is not large enough, Carroll. I am not going under that.
If you need an actual lengthy shot to at the least get inside putting vary, Seiya Suzuki at +10000 is my play with Oneil Cruz at +6000 being price point out. Nonetheless, they ain’t profitable.
AL Cy Younger
IMPORTANT NOTE: In gentle of the Cole damage, the percentages for AL Cy Younger have been taken off the board in the intervening time. As of publishing time, it is a close to particular that Cole will open the season on the injured checklist, for a way lengthy remains to be up within the air. This appears to be sufficient for the books to maintain the AL Cy Younger off the board in the intervening time.
The remainder of this part was written earlier than information of his damage broke. Since it isn’t like we will replace this with a play proper now, as a result of the award is completely off the board, I am going to depart my ideas for leisure. They’re in italics, so we do not get confused.
Favorites: Gerrit Cole +590, Framber Valdez +800, Kevin Gausman +800, Corbin Burnes +1000, Tarik Skubal +1000
My play: Gerrit Cole +590. Typically prior to now I’ve caught flack for choosing the “chalk” individual or the straightforward favourite. Positive, I might stray from Cole right here, however I sincerely suppose he is simply the most effective decide to win. In a blowout. The percentages additionally say that betting $100 wins you $590, so is that actually a nasty guess? Would not we reasonably win than lose? Chalk picks are solely unhealthy in the event that they lose. Cole was the favourite final yr and he gained. In the event you averted the favourite, you averted profitable cash.
Lengthy-shot play(s): Cole Ragans at +1800 bought my consideration, however I am not fairly certain he can win. Might Justin Verlander (+4500)? Positive. Tanner Bibee at +8000 is fascinating sufficient, very like Marcus Stroman or Chris Bassitt on the identical odds. I am having an awfully laborious time convincing myself anybody under George Kirby (+1200) and Luis Castillo (+1300) can win, although.
I am going to go along with Kirby at +1200. If that does not depend, I assume Verlander at that worth is at all times price just a little sprinkle.
With Cole absolutely out of the way in which right here, I might most likely find yourself taking both Gausman or Burnes. It is powerful with out strains, although, clearly.
NL Cy Younger
Favorites: Spencer Strider +475, Yoshinobu Yamamoto +1000, Zack Wheeler +1000, Max Fried +1200, Logan Webb +1200
My play: Logan Webb +1200. Strider is the chalk decide right here and I would not argue with anybody making that choice. Webb completed second in NL Cy Younger voting final season as a 26 yr outdated. The Giants had one of many worst defenses in all of baseball and it seems to be a lot improved this season — particularly with Matt Chapman now manning third base. Webb would be the greatest workhorse within the league and his ERA will likely be glowing.
Lengthy-shot play(s): Zac Gallen at +1400 and Justin Steele at +1800 spherical out a number of the main contenders from final season. I am certain many love Tyler Glasnow at +1800 however I simply cannot get previous his profession excessive in innings being 120. On condition that, these odds aren’t close to excessive sufficient to guess on him profitable Cy Younger.
There are much more intriguing choices right here than on the AL aspect, similar to Sonny Grey +3500, Eury Pérez +3500, Hunter Greene +4000 and several other others. I am going with Greene. He is 24 years outdated and has proven flashes of top-shelf stuff. He struck out 152 in 112 innings final yr. He is additionally added a curve and a splitter to his repertoire this spring. He most likely will not work greater than, say, 160 innings this season and that makes him an extended shot. In contrast to Glasnow, although, his odds make a sprinkle price it. There’s sufficient upside right here that he might sneak in with that kind of workload, assuming accidents and underperformance to the highest canines.
AL Rookie of the Yr
Favorites: Jackson Holliday +350, Evan Carter +375, Wyatt Langford +450, Junior Caminero +800, Colt Keith +950
My play: This can be a ridiculous class right here. Lots of seasons, one of many high three can be an apparent play. I feel I lean Carter right here as a consequence of his expertise final yr down the stretch and within the playoffs — and the way none of it even remotely phased him. Any of the 5 listed proper there are high quality performs and I would not argue.
Lengthy-shot play(s): It is so crowded towards the highest that I do not discover lots of the names additional down very thrilling. Possibly Heston Kjerstad (+3000), Kyle Manzardo (+3000) or Curtis Mead (+3500)?
As an alternative of making an attempt to hit an extended shot, can I encourage as a substitute selecting two of the three from Holliday, Carter and Langford and nonetheless popping out on high when one of many three wins? I suppose you can even play all three, however then the margin of victory is very slim and may not be price it if Caminero or Keith sneaks in.
NL Rookie of the Yr
Favorites: Yoshinobu Yamamoto +170, Jung Hoo Lee +700, Jackson Chourio +850, Michael Busch +1300
My play: It is Yamamoto. As famous with my Cole decide, being proper is what wins cash, not avoiding the favorites. These are awfully quick odds, although, so please be happy to keep away from.
Lengthy-shot play(s): Loads of gifted names might emerge, similar to Paul Skenes (+1800), Masyn Winn (+2000), Jordan Lawlar (+2200), Max Meyer (+2800) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (+3000). How about Jackson Merrill at +3500 with the Padres determined to stay in competition with out spending more money so as to add gamers from outdoors the group. He is making the swap to outfield to allow them to promote him.
Yeah, I am going to go along with Merrill because the long-shot play.
HR chief
Favorites: Aaron Decide +400, Matt Olson +700, Pete Alonso +800, Shohei Ohtani +900, Juan Soto +900
My play: I am going Ohtani right here. I am certain it’d confuse folks to play him right here however not NL MVP, however let’s consider him not pitching this season. That provides him a downgrade in MVP voting when in previous seasons he is had a bonus on high of his offense. After all, additionally think about that he is used to pitching in a rotation along with hitting whereas this season he solely has hitting (and bodily remedy) to occupy his thoughts. In principle, he needs to be extra rested for his offensive performances. His profession excessive in homers is 46. He’ll set a brand new one and high 50 this yr.
Lengthy-shot play(s): It is an open area with a number of enjoyable ones. Kyle Schwarber is +1200 and Yordan Alvarez is +1300. Fernando Tatis Jr. — my NL MVP decide! — is +2000. Bear in mind, he hit 42 homers in 130 video games in 2021. How about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +2000 or Austin Riley at +3000. Bryce Harper (+4000), Jorge Soler (+4500), Adolis García (+4500) and Corey Seager (+4500) might be cheap performs. Among the many longer photographs, Eloy Jimenez and Spencer Torkelson at +8000. Triston Casas hit 15 homers in 180 second-half at-bats final yr and is +10000.
I am going to go along with Tatis. If we wished an extended shot, Torkelson, who hit 31 bombs in his first full season final yr and has sufficient uncooked energy to get to 45 as he retains studying big-league pitching.
RBI chief
Favorites: Pete Alonso +850, Yordan Alvarez +900, Aaron Decide +1000, Matt Olson +1000, Shohei Ohtani +1000, Juan Soto +1000
My play: Olson led the majors with 139 final yr, his first with the Braves. He performs each day and hits in the midst of a ridiculous lineup. Why get cute?
Lengthy-shot play(s): Ought to I am going again to the effectively with Fernando Tatis Jr.? He is +3000. Adolis García goes to be sitting in fairly a soft RBI spot in that loaded Rangers lineup. He is +3000 as effectively. Bryce Harper additionally has a pleasant RBI slot and he is +2800.
Any of those three work. I do not need to commit, however I’ve to stay my neck out and play one. I am going to go along with García.
Strikeouts chief
Once more, this has been taken off the board with Cole out. It will absolutely come again quickly, so I am going to depart my unique ideas under in italics.
Favorites: Spencer Strider +190, Gerrit Cole +1200, Kevin Gausman +1200
My play: How about this one, huh? I assume we would be idiots to stray from Strider. In any case my preaching about profitable and never getting cute, he is the play.
Lengthy-shot play(s): If Strider will get damage (which we completely don’t need to see occur, however the actuality is accidents are a part of sports activities, particularly with pitchers in baseball), it is fairly open. Pablo López and Corbin Burnes at +2000 can be high quality performs. Zack Wheeler at +2500 works. Dylan Stop at +3000 does, too. I already talked about that I like Hunter Greene and he is +2500. He is the play right here.
If we wished a for much longer shot, how about Chris Sale at +7500? I do not suppose he’ll have an enormous workload or something, however he struck out 218 in 147 1/3 innings in 2019. Final yr, he punched out 125 in 102 2/3 innings, so he nonetheless has the form of strikeout fee wanted. He is 34, which means he is not overly outdated like Verlander (41). A full season of well being with issues breaking proper and Sale might effectively win this factor.