How the AL West was gained: The highway to the playoffs as Mariners, Rangers and Astros battle for a division win

As September looms, one division race towers over all others in terms of intrigue and the promise of a white-knuckled end. That may be the American League West. 

At this writing, the Mariners – buoyed by a 30-12 mark within the second half – are in first place. Only a sport again are the Rangers and Astros. Whereas the AL East continues to be tight on the high, no different division apart from the AL West has three groups so near first place. As such, a better examination of the AL West and the determinative month forward is so as. Let’s undertake that now. 

What’s at stake

Because of the revised playoff construction, fairly a bit hangs within the stability. Every league sends six groups to the postseason – the three division winners and three wild-card entrants. The highest two division winners earn a bye via the opening, best-of-three Wild Card Sequence and go straight to the best-of-five Division Sequence. That is an enormous incentive to win your respective flag and likewise end with one of many high two information amongst division winners. Talking of which, the AL East winner and AL West winner are all however assured to earn these byes. Whereas it is doable the Twins – answerable for the AL Central at this writing – may hawk down the AL West winner, the deficit is substantial at this late hour. As such, it’s totally possible {that a} coveted bye is at stake in terms of the AL West race. 

As nicely, the runners-up within the West are removed from assured a wild-card spot. Proper now, the Astros and Rangers are tied for the second spot within the AL, however the Blue Jays are shut behind and actual threats to bump one of many AL West runners-up from the playoff fray. As nicely, the Pink Sox are nonetheless inside believable vary of wild-card place. 

Add all of it up, and, sure, there’s loads of incentive for the M’s, Astros, and Rangers to wind up on high. 

Accidents

In terms of sidelined AL West contributors who determine to return in some unspecified time in the future over the ultimate month-plus of standard season, every of those three groups have conditions to observe. 

The Mariners’ most notable absence is that of 24-year-old outfielder Jarred Kelenic, who put himself on ice on July 20 when he kicked a cooler in frustration and broke his left foot. Whereas it is not but sure when he’ll return to the energetic roster, he’ll quickly start a minor-league rehab task. “It isn’t going to be a one- or two-day factor,” basic supervisor Justin Hollander mentioned just lately of Kelenic’s forthcoming task. “I do not wish to set a quantity and have that be both method too lengthy or method too quick. That can be as much as the medical folks to find out.”

Kelenic general has loved a productive 2023 in Seattle, however his degree of manufacturing had slacked off following a sizzling first month of the season. As nicely, the M’s have loved pretty robust manufacturing from left area in Kelenic’s absence. 

As for the Rangers, they’re presently with out two core contributors: right-handed starter Nathan Eovaldi and rookie third baseman Josh Jung. Eovaldi, who could have been in line for some AL Cy Younger assist earlier than a forearm pressure sidelined him in the course of July, is working his method again. It is doable he is again within the Texas rotation by early September, however that timeline is a bit unsure as a result of he could be headed out on a minor-league rehab task. In the meantime, Jung, an All-Star this season and certainly one of Texas’ most efficient bats in 2023, fractured his thumb in early August whereas making an attempt to make a play on a line drive. The present expectation is that he’ll be capable of return earlier than the tip of the common season, albeit late in September. 

For the Astros, it is all about veteran outfielder Michael Brantley. The 36-year-old’s return from shoulder surgical procedure is sort of full, and he’ll quickly see sport motion for Houston for the time since June of final yr. Brantley’s current historical past suggests he’ll nonetheless be a dependable producer on the plate. He’ll give the reigning champs one other helpful bat to place within the DH and left area combine. The Astros additionally need assistance in opposition to right-handed pitching, and Brantley ought to actually handle that shortcoming. 

The schedule forward

We usually do not see large variations in power of schedule in MLB, at the very least throughout the identical division, however the margins in play nonetheless benefit mentioning. This is a have a look at what’s forward for every of those three groups. 

Once more, we’re not taking a look at huge margins, but it surely’s honest to characterize this side as “benefit Astros.” Particularly, Houston has a complete of 9 video games remaining in opposition to the A’s and Royals. Elsewhere, the Mariners and Rangers will go head-to-head seven instances throughout the remaining 10 video games of the common season. 

Who’s been the very best to this point at an underlying degree?

Clearly, precise information are a very powerful factor, however underlying indicators have important worth when projecting efficiency shifting ahead. Run differential is one such indicator, and one other is the BaseRuns system obtainable at FanGraphs. It strips away the luck and hit-sequencing noise constructed into runs scored and runs allowed and will get at an much more basic analysis of staff high quality. These factors favor Texas.

• Rangers: Plus-173 run differential, .629 BaseRuns profitable share.
• Mariners: Plus-109 run differential, .598 BaseRuns profitable share.
• Astros: Plus-96 run differential, .537 BaseRuns profitable share. 

Do the Rangers have a bit of a better efficiency ceiling the remainder of the best way? You may argue they do based mostly on these above numbers. That mentioned, the damage concerns famous above should be taken into consideration. 

Tiebreakers

Playoff enlargement introduced an finish to any “Recreation 163s” that in days bygone broke ties for division titles and wild-card berths. Now, the primary tiebreaker is head-to-head document, and that would clearly come into play in figuring out the AL West champ for 2023. This is what you want to know on that entrance. 

• The Mariners have clinched the season collection in opposition to the Astros and maintain that tiebreaker. 
• The Rangers maintain a 5-1 edge over the Mariners in 2023, and they should win simply two of these seven remaining head-to-head video games in opposition to Seattle to clinch the season collection. 
• The Astros are up 6-4 on Texas this season. Meaning Houston must win certainly one of their remaining three head-to-head video games to safe the tiebreaker over Texas. That three-game collection in Arlington begins on Sept. 4.

Since groups play divisional opponents an odd variety of instances through the common season, no different tiebreakers can be required. It would all come right down to head-to-head information.

Now let’s benefit from the coming mayhem out west.