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Sunday, April 14, 2024

Denver Regional Preview | Stability Beam Scenario

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First Spherical – March 30, 2pm MT – Arizona vs North Carolina
Semifinal 1 – March 31, 2pm MT – LSU, Oregon State, Georgia, Nebraska
Semifinal 2 – March 31, 7pm MT – Michigan, Denver, Minnesota, AZ/UNC
Last – April 2, 5pm MT

First Spherical

The Denver regional in all probability presents the hardest path for the play-in groups, notably enjoyable for #28 Arizona which by no means ought to have been put within the play-in meets within the first place.

Arizona is the best-ranked group throughout the play-in colleges and has been at 197 this yr along with a 196.8 and 196.6, and as such, needs to be thought of the favourite right here. Nonetheless, Arizona’s convention championship rating of 196.375 was simply .025 forward of North Carolina’s consequence, which ought to spark some hope for competitiveness. Arizona has the peak-score benefit, however these groups have been typically matching one another with lower-196s from week to week this season. 

Regulate bars. If North Carolina has a path into this meet, its bars, the one equipment the place UNC is the better-ranked group, with a lineup that includes top-10 Lali Dekanoidze in addition to some others like Elizabeth Culton who can 9.9. It’s powerful to see a North Carolina path into this meet that doesn’t contain choosing up a piece of tenths on bars, so if each groups find yourself having sort of a 49.2 of a bars day as a substitute, Arizona will really feel excellent about its probabilities to develop a lead within the second half of the meet. 

Arizona actually cast its id as a beam group final season, led by nationwide qualifier Sirena Linton, and whereas there have been just a few shaky adventures within the first half of this season, the lineup is on the ascending slope, having scored no less than 49.325 in every of the final 4 meets and reaching a season-high 49.400 at Pac-12s. In the meantime, UNC’s peak on beam this season is 49.175, which is why they’ll be desperate to have that first-half bars lead, to resist what may come on beam and nonetheless preserve the prospect for an upset. 

Regional Semifinals – Battle to Watch

The true battle to look at within the regional semifinals might be Minnesota vs beam. It’s been a journey. It was a journey even final season, and that was with Ramler and Loper. However at this yr’s Large Ten Championship, Minnesota discovered hitting 5 of 6 good beam routines, and it became an distinctive rotation for 49.425 (majorly eclipsing the earlier season excessive of 49.150) and led the group to 197.250.

That was stronger than Denver’s convention championships rating of 197.175 and tells us that if Minnesota truly has discovered beam in a two-meets-in-a-row sort of approach, they may make issues deeply annoying for the hosts Denver within the second semifinal. Given Minnesota’s 10.0 begins on vault, and the Hooten of all of it on flooring, there’s the potential for large numbers on this group.

Denver ought to nonetheless be thought of the favorites to make it out of the semifinal alongside Michigan, not simply due to being the hosts (although it typically helps) but additionally greater scoring potential displayed all through the season.

The massive indicator for Denver needs to be the ground rating popping out of the primary rotation. As a rule, flooring has been the lagging whole for Denver this yr (save for that informal 49.825 from senior day), although it actually shouldn’t be a weak rotation with routines like Hutchinson and Brown rattling round in there. Nonetheless, flooring was simply 49.075 at Large 12s with a counting OOB and that awkward touchdown for Casali. If Denver can get out of that first flooring rotation with one thing like a 49.4, that in all probability provides them the muse to fend off even day from Minnesota. But when that opening flooring is 49.1 or 49.0, Minnesota will view that as promising signal.

As for the primary semifinal, the concept Georgia and Nebraska may problem LSU and Oregon State might be primarily based extra historic associations than on what has truly occurred this season, however Oregon State did rating 197.200 at Pac-12s, a rating that each Georgia and Nebraska have eclipsed twice through the season, so that they’ll give themselves an opportunity. Oregon State is a group very depending on beam and flooring, so if a kind of scores doesn’t ship on the day, immediately you’re a weak group whole.

Regional Last – Battle to Watch

Battle 198. That is the one regional by which the top-4 seeds have all scored a 198 up to now this season, Oregon State and Denver every going there as soon as, LSU doing it twice, and Michigan 198ing a full 5 instances.

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As in different regionals, the highest seed ought to really feel pretty secure right here. Michigan shouldn’t be prohibitively secure, not 2022-national-semifinal-proof, however secure sufficient that competing pretty near potential ought to make for a drama-free day. Whereas these different groups have at instances put up the sort of scores that could be tense for Michigan, you don’t anticipate all that 198 to be repeated within the regional remaining. And if the score-scape was such that it have been repeated, Michigan’s in all probability on a 199.

The massive query for this regional remaining surrounds LSU’s damage apocalypse and the way that may play out within the postseason. Are these actual lineup options, or simply newspaper taped over a damaged window? Can that beam lineup maintain as much as the crucible that could be a must-hit elimination state of affairs? Is that bars lineup extra than simply 9.8s?

If LSU can get by bars and beam with SEC-dual, high-197 kind scores, that in all probability seals it no matter how Oregon State and Denver (/Minnesota?) carry out since LSU’s vault and flooring, regardless of being essentially the most affected by the accidents, have additionally proven essentially the most depth to resist them. Each Oregon State and Denver, nevertheless, will anticipate to outscore LSU on beam (even when it’s hit for LSU) and if there’s any sort of actual margin developed there, they’ll be capable to lean on it throughout apparatuses that could be extra advantageous to LSU.

If the seeds maintain by the semifinal, Oregon State will begin on beam, similar to at Pac-12s, so will anticipate to be on 198 tempo by two occasions. However as a way to make nationals, they’re going to have to raised preserve one thing near that tempo on vault and bars. The scores can’t immediately drop off a cliff. Which principally means it’s going to should be a Jade-10 sort of day.

Denver, in the meantime, would finish the meet on a excessive, ending on bars and beam, its best-two ranked occasions. If the house vibes are flying, if Denver has saved it shut sufficient early, and if LSU opens the door ultimately, be careful.

People

Particular person qualification sees the top-ranked AAer and top-ranked performer on every occasion who will not be a part of a qualifying group advance to nationals as people, primarily based on the scores from the regional semifinals.

If Oregon State doesn’t advance as a group, then the all-around qualifier dialog would start and finish with Jade Carey, who’s the heavy, heavy favourite to advance. Any of the opposite AA prospects on this regional are very a lot hoping that Oregon State goes as a group. Though, if Oregon State does go as a group, it could in all probability be on the expense of LSU, after which, you recognize, Haleigh Bryant and whatnot. Denver wouldn’t concede that simply, with Jessica Hutchinson and Lynnzee Brown very a lot within the dialog, however that is the hardest regional for AA qualification by far.

The occasion specialists, nevertheless, would very a lot desire Jade Carey to qualify as an all-arounder in order that she wouldn’t be eligible to take their spots on the apparatuses. That might permit room for one of many flooring 10ers this season like Mya Hooten and Jessica Hutchinson to get by. Denver ought to have numerous particular person nominees with Hutchinson and Brown and a few stickable Y1.5s, so even when they don’t make it as a group, it could be stunning in the event that they don’t get any qualifiers in any respect.

Oregon State would even have some further occasion nominees on beam and flooring. I might be a fan of Jenna Domingo on beam, however that could be powerful from the #2 slot.

Essentially the most open equipment on this (and lots of) regionals may find yourself being bars, which is the place North Carolina would hope to get Dekanoidze in (Culton on beam presenting another choice however on a deeper occasion), and Nebraska might probably sneak a bars qualifier in given how Emma Spence and Kinsey Davis have scored currently. Operation Justice for Alysen Fears of Arizona can be gaining momentum as she has three 9.925s in March. Georgia may discover it powerful to get an eventer in there as they haven’t actually had the massive 9.950/9.975 routine this yr, however I wouldn’t be mad at JaFree Scott beam qualifier.

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