I adore it when a couple of quarterbacks make “the leap” yearly. Quarterback is an important place in sports activities and breakout performances are one fascinating and impactful aspect of that.
I lately logged each quarterback leap since 2000 to search out the commonest elements linking them collectively as we look forward to mission breakout (or improved) performances in 2024.
The first elements resulting in quarterback leaps might be positioned into 4 buckets: growth, teaching, supporting solid and a change of surroundings.
At this time’s focus is the supporting solid. I am speaking about situations like Donovan McNabb in 2004 and Tom Brady in 2007. McNabb went from 16 landing passes in 2003, to 31 in 2004 after the Eagles traded for Terrell Owens. Brady had by no means even had a 30-touchdown season previous to the Patriots buying and selling for Randy Moss. He proceeded to throw for an NFL-record 50 in his first season with Moss within the Patriots‘ 16-0 regular-season run in 2007.
Now buying and selling for veteran move catchers is the recent development within the NFL’s copycat league. Getting top-flight huge receivers labored wonders for Josh Allen (Stefon Diggs), Joe Burrow (Ja’Marr Chase), Jalen Hurts (A.J. Brown) and Tua Tagovailoa (Tyreek Hill) in the previous couple of years. Justin Fields was an exception to the latest development, as he stayed in impartial final season after the Bears traded for D.J. Moore. Alternatively, Matthew Stafford was a shock leap, thanks partly to the historic rookie 12 months from Puka Nacua.
Editor’s notice: That is Half 4 of a five-part collection that dives deep into NFL quarterbacks making sudden, large enchancment, which we have dubbed ‘Quarterback Leap Week.’ This is what’s been revealed to date:
QB leaps since 2000 as a result of improved supporting solid
There have been a number of fascinating offseason strikes that could possibly be the first issue for a quarterback leap. Listed here are 4 candidates, not together with Jalen Hurts (after the Saquon Barkley signing), who was mentioned in Wednesday’s article on quarterback leaps as a result of teaching adjustments.
I like this transfer for the Ravens offense and their Tremendous Bowl possibilities, particularly after Baltimore operating backs mixed for six carries and 23 yards within the AFC Championship recreation loss to the Chiefs. Nevertheless, there’s not a lot room for a leap after Jackson received MVP final season.
A 12 months in the past I believed Daniel Jones might take the subsequent step in his recreation after the Giants added two downfield targets in Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt. I am not making the identical mistake twice! Giants first-round choose Malik Nabers is clearly higher than each these gamers, nevertheless it’s onerous to endorse Jones after he took an enormous step again final 12 months. If Jones does take a step ahead once more it’s going to be as a result of Nabers helps him stretch the sphere. Jones had simply 10 completions touring 20-plus air yards in 2022, tied for thirtieth within the NFL. Nabers had 19 catches on these deep balls final 12 months at LSU, second within the nation behind Rome Odunze (23). He must also assist a Giants group that was twenty sixth in yards after catch per reception final 12 months.
C.J. Stroud after Stefon Diggs commerce (leap unlikely)
It will be onerous for Stroud to make an enormous leap after his historic rookie 12 months. He led the NFL in each touchdown-to-interception ratio and passing yards per recreation final 12 months. Neglect rookies, Joe Montana (1989) and Tom Brady (2007) are the one quarterbacks to guide the NFL outright in each classes within the final 50 years (min. 10 begins). The Stefon Diggs commerce must be a case of the wealthy getting richer as Stroud was third in EPA per play concentrating on wideouts in 2023.
The upside continues to be there for Kyler Murray. He was twelfth in EPA per play final 12 months and one in every of 4 gamers with 200 passing yards and 30 speeding yards per recreation, together with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. He developed instantaneous chemistry with Trey McBride, finishing 53 of 66 passes for 538 yards in eight video games with the younger tight finish. That is a 100-catch and 1,000-yard tempo in the event that they play a full season collectively. Downside is, Murray had no huge receiver to throw the ball to. He was 9 of 24 for 134 yards concentrating on Marquise Brown, who was alleged to be his No. 1 goal. Murray completed with the second-worst EPA per play concentrating on huge receivers final season, and in addition the second-worst mark throwing 15-plus air yards. Mac Jones was the one quarterback worse in both class. Arizona drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. fourth total, and he might instantly enhance Murray’s manufacturing in each areas and assist him play at a top-10 degree.
Patrick Mahomes is a straightforward name to make a leap in 2024 after he ranked fifteenth in EPA per play final season whereas posting profession lows in yards per try, touchdown-to-interception ratio and passing yards per recreation. His deep ball has all however disappeared because the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, however that would possibly change this 12 months, because of the prodding of Andy Reid, as Jared Dubin famous earlier this month. It is onerous to consider Mahomes has two landing passes touring 20-plus air yards within the final two seasons. That is the identical variety of Tremendous Bowl MVPs he has in that span. He had 41 deep ball touchdowns in his earlier 4 years. He additionally had the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio concentrating on huge receivers 10-plus air yards final 12 months (1-6).
These are surprising numbers that spotlight each the necessity for huge receiver assist and the magnificent evolution of Mahomes. Assist is unquestionably on the way in which, although, and perhaps the Chiefs can return to their ‘Legion of Zoom’ days with the addition of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown. Let’s not neglect Chiefs wideouts additionally led the NFL in drops (28) and drop fee (12 p.c) final season. It will be an enormous shock if that occurred once more.