Shedding Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the identical recreation was among the many worst potential eventualities for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mixed this season, the 2 had scored 6 of Baker Mayfield’s 18 passing touchdowns and caught 77 of Mayfield’s 165 completions for 839 of Mayfield’s 1,859 passing yards.
Godwin’s season is over. At the least Evans figures to return again — NFL Media says the star receiver can be seemingly out till Week 12.
However who will step as much as substitute them in an effort to maintain the Bucs offense explosive?
Listed below are the fundamentals of how Godwin and Evans have been used this season. Nobody needs to be stunned by any of those numbers.
| Route % | Slot/Large | Route depth | ADOT | Tgt/route% | |
| Chris Godwin | 89% | 62%/38% | 6.93 | 5.74 | 25.6% |
| Mike Evans | 71% | 24%/76% | 8.6 | 10.80 | 23.2% |
Maybe the largest variety of all is the end-zone targets Evans had in his first six video games: eight. Nobody else on the Bucs had greater than two.
Whoever takes the place of Godwin and Evans will not should run very far downfield, particularly within the case of Godwin. However the burden of making an attempt to be as impactful might be one thing not being preached by Tampa’s coaches. Nobody on the roster can do what these two can and did.
Fantasy managers ought to have comparable expectations. Whoever turns into the brand new favourite of Baker Mayfield most likely will not be even 80% of what Godwin and Evans was.
The receivers
Trey Palmer was the understudy to Mike Evans in Week 7. Within the three snaps Evans missed within the first quarter, Palmer was in to take his place. Then within the second quarter Palmer changed Evans solely as soon as Evans walked off the sector along with his proper hamstring damage. That continued into the second half when Palmer had an ideal 100% route price.
Jalen McMillan performed forward of Palmer and primarily break up the No. 3 receiver duties with veteran Sterling Shepard. McMillan opened the sport enjoying each snap on the opening drive besides the final one when Evans scored — that was when Shepard got here in. McMillan could have out-snapped Shepard over the course of the sport, however the two hardly ever noticed the sector on the similar time till Godwin obtained harm and Shepard moved solely into the slot for 5 of the Bucs final six performs.
There’s your expectation: Palmer and McMillan ought to line up vast, Shepard predominantly within the slot.
Here is how they have been used up to now, together with Week 7:
| Route % | Slot/Large | Route depth | ADOT | Tgt/route% | |
| Trey Palmer | 26% | 23%/73% | 11.4 | 9.56 | 12.9% |
| Jalen McMillan | 45% | 23%/75% | 10.7 | 13.73 | 12.3% |
| Sterling Shepard | 44% | 33%/66% | 9.7 | 13.75 | 10.0% |
You will discover that Shepard already has a leg up on Palmer and McMillan in proportion of snaps from the slot. That is simply scratching the floor, although — Shepard was as soon as a close to full-time slot receiver on the Giants. He light from that function, nonetheless, solely to resurface now with the Bucs simply so he may very well be reunited with Mayfield, his school pal. His movie is not half-bad both. Shepard has quick-twitch agility to assist him get open in his routes, although his straight-line pace wanes. He’ll should see good goal quantity with the intention to be a succesful PPR possibility, and that simply is not promised.Â
You already know Palmer was Evans’ substitute on the sector, however not within the field rating and seemingly not in Mayfield’s eyes. Palmer’s pace was effective however he lacked quickness to separate from equally quick defenders. Palmer additionally struggled with bodily protection, and there additionally seemed to be a timing subject on certainly one of Mayfield’s targets to Palmer, one thing that may be labored on in time. It is arduous to anticipate Palmer to get higher in a rush, although it could assist if Mayfield would at the very least look in his course when he discovered open area in opposition to zone protection. Perhaps that’ll occur now that Evans is sidelined.
McMillan figures to see essentially the most alternatives within the wake of accidents to Godwin and Evans, however I am unable to say he is a cinch for enormous Fantasy manufacturing. Little doubt, he noticed eight targets in Week 7 together with seven with out Evans on the sector, however he caught solely three whole for 15 yards. 4 targets got here within the ultimate six minutes of the sport when the Bucs have been determined to attain something and the Ravens performed informal zone protection. Mayfield additionally tried McMillan on a bunch of deep throws and the 2 could not join. As for his movie, he is obtained the very best mixture of pace and agility, which might be why he was enjoying forward of Shepard and Palmer to start with.
It’s going to be a large number between all three of those guys, and when Evans comes again (hopefully), he’ll relegate all of them to Fantasy waiver wires.Â
I am going to guess that between these receivers one may have at the very least 12 PPR factors every week and the opposite two can be fortunate to get to 10. Predicting who will do what week in and week out can be a chore. I would not hitch my wagon to any of those wideouts.
The contact, the texture of Otton
Going into Week 7, Bucs tight finish Cade Otton was third on the staff in targets per recreation (5.2), catches (19), yards (163, a distant third) and goal share (16.5%). He was additionally third in red-zone targets, one behind Godwin and two behind Evans.
With the star receivers out, Otton is in line to see much more work. And that is precisely what occurred on Monday in opposition to the Ravens. As soon as Evans was sidelined, Otton caught 7 of 9 targets for 12.4 yards per catch. A pair of explosive catches helped Otton accrue 100 on the night time, a career-high by 30 yards over his earlier mark.
Nobody ought to anticipate Otton to be this good for the remainder of the season. However he is the one most definitely to gobble up the short-area targets Godwin left behind, and he is additionally a cinch to select up at the very least a couple of extra end-zone targets with Evans sidelined. Baker Mayfield additionally has had a career-long tendency on leaning on his tight finish (which fits again to his days in school with Mark Andrews).
It makes a ton of sense for Otton to be extra concerned, which is why he is the most secure guess to provide Fantasy factors regularly, not any of the Bucs receivers. The actual fact he is a decent finish is an added bonus. I would add him off waivers ASAP.