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Graham Hunter, Spain author
The rarified environment round Barcelona which encompasses their typically myopic, hysterical media, their downtrodden and traumatised followers, plus a directorate which has spent extra time baling water out of the craft than crusing ahead over the previous few seasons implies that defeat to Bayern Munich on Wednesday within the Champions League will tip most of them again into full-on disaster mode regardless of this season’s glorious opening part.
This, in fact, could be a nonsensical place to undertake.
For context, regardless of taking part in at residence, Barça are are underdogs contemplating previous outcomes. Their all-time report towards Germany’s strongest and relentless membership is, fairly merely, atrocious. Together with the notorious 8-2 defeat that fully wrecked the Quique Setien regime 4 years in the past (by the hands of present Barça coach Hansi Flick, keep in mind!) the Catalans’ slate towards Bayern reads: performed 15, gained 2, drawn 2, misplaced 11, scored 16, conceded 37.
That is, by an enormous distance, their worst and most humiliating report towards any rival in Barcelona’s whole 125-year historical past. Simply to seal the case, Barça’s final 4 matches towards the Bavarians have been straight defeats, no objectives scored and 11 conceded.
If this run continues on Wednesday, Barcelona would sit with three factors from a potential 9 and, even with 5 matches left — Pink Star Belgrade away; Brest, residence; Borussia Dortmund, away; Benfica, away; Atalanta, residence — Flick’s workforce could be in a precarious place.
After the second matchday, Opta ranked Barcelona as almost certainly to complete eleventh — which means no computerized qualification to the knockout rounds (solely the highest eight) and a play-off tie early subsequent yr. However they’d be seeded, giving them residence benefit for the decisive match in that tie. Defeat at residence to Bayern and that estimate will change — fairly negatively. They’re presently sixteenth within the Champions League, courtesy of objectives scored, and it is possible that defeat would go away them briefly within the elimination zone.
Any workforce that finishes seventeenth to twenty fourth on this new format will play their decisive second leg within the knockout spherical away from residence — a drawback and a prospect to strike utter horror into the hearts of Barcelona’s leaders. They actually can’t afford to not make it by way of to at the very least the quarterfinal ties — a monetary disaster.
However let’s not get too far forward of ourselves, as there is a surefire first step Barcelona can take with a view to compete for a draw or (unlikely) win over the Bundesliga leaders: Cease making brainless choices.
Two of their final three Champions League matches have resulted in horrible, damaging defeats, in contests they may and will have gained, after that they had a participant despatched off every time. Despatched off for instinctive, however daft, choices.
One occasion was when Ronald Araújo (with Barcelona main PSG 4-2 on mixture in final season’s quarterfinal) introduced down Bradley Barcola after he received away from him. The opposite was when Eric García was fed a misjudged move by Marc-André ter Stegen, discovered himself robbed of the ball and pulled Monaco’s Takumi Minamino down virtually instinctively. Pink card once more.
Neither resolution was crystal clear and each went towards Barcelona, however each, in quite a few methods, have been solely unavoidable. In the event that they fall into the identical traps towards Bayern Munich this week they will not merely lose — they will be humbled.
Flick, if something, has his new workforce taking part in with an much more daring, superior, excessive defensive position than home-bred, Cruyff-disciple Xavi Hernandez did. It is exceptional to observe. At any time when this model of Barcelona feels capable of it defends, actually, on the midway line. The ebb and circulate of matches implies that their defence’s common distance from their goal-line is 51 metres — an enormous, grand canyon of inexperienced grass between goalkeeper and his defensive team-mates in comparison with 99% of different groups. The pitch they will play upon towards Bayern is 105 metres lengthy, indicating that Flick’s workforce will attempt to defend not far in need of that midway line.
It is a tactic meant to attain a number of issues. Firstly, it pushes all of the motion in direction of the opposition’s means to construct from the again. That means that not solely does Barcelona’s urgent and harassing begin manner excessive up the pitch, however they will accumulate plenty of our bodies to crowd the zone the place their opponent actually would not need to lose possession.
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How Hansi Flick has revived Robert Lewandowski at Barcelona
Alejandro Moreno and Steve Nicol talk about Robert Lewandowski’s kind after Barcelona’s 5-1 win vs. Sevilla.
It is a defensive position, which additionally implies that if Barcelona win the ball again when an opposition breakaway dissolves, then the primary offensive move is on or past the midway line — permitting an prompt hazard of a goal-pass being created for Flick’s aspect.
Lastly, and that is to be borne in thoughts for the Bayern take a look at, in case your rival sees the massive house in behind the defensive position and desires to burst/counter assault into it, then they require to have the calm and accuracy to distribute the ball nicely and it is crucial they’ve attacking gamers, not essentially the centre-forward, who can out-sprint Barcelona’s retreating defenders.
Within the PSG occasion, they did. Barcola profited from dangerous distribution by Araújo, as Luis Enrique’s plan about how and when to press the Uruguayan (selectively, so they may drive him into badly chosen passes) succeeded. Paris performed 69 minutes with 11 vs. 10; it was essential and decided which aspect went by way of, as a 4-2 mixture lead for Barcelona turned a PSG 6-4 victory margin. That is an enormous swing — little surprise Ilkay Gündogan criticised Araújo for poor choice-making.
When García received himself red-carded in Monte Carlo for once more selecting to commit a last-man foul, the tie was 0-0 and Barcelona went on to comprehensively show that they may have gained with 10 vs. 11 within the ensuing 81 minutes. However they did not. They have been the higher workforce and had higher aim possibilities — however they have been dragged down by taking part in towards a rival with an additional man and, finally, have been defeated 2-1 by Monaco.
In each situations, the higher proportion resolution was to let the offensive participant get his shot or assault away reasonably than get despatched off.
Trendy soccer, particularly in matches each groups need to win (reasonably than certainly one of them being hell-bent on a draw), with their ebb-and-flow, with the massive investments of athletic power and with the fixed must keep away from tiredness gnawing away at good decision-making and focus in micro-second moments of problem — is a horrendous place to be for those who play for an extended time frame with a person lower than the opposite workforce. That is the place Barcelona put themselves twice within the final three outings.
It is fairly one other factor when, like Dani Carvajal‘s apparent and absolutely deliberate red-card foul vs. Germany price him with an expulsion and a compulsory suspension from the European Championship semifinal — however virtually definitely saved Spain from conceding in added time of additional time (a hundred and twenty fifth minute) whereas main 2-1.
Flick will know that if Osasuna — the place Barcelona misplaced their solely match this season and conceded copious ball-over-the-top possibilities — can rip his workforce’s high-defence line to absolute shreds then Bayern, on their day, can demonstrably achieve this too.
Vincent Kompany and his technical employees could have appeared too at how Alaves — though crushed 3-0 — might need scored three or 4 themselves from having received behind Barcelona’s defensive position (though the Basque workforce was caught offside numerous occasions).
Flick has already confirmed that Barcelona’s goalkeeper Iñaki Peña will play on Wednesday, and he appears to be like shaky — like Bambi on ice, in my view. It is a participant extraordinarily quick on confidence, particularly coping with crosses in a crowded space and positioning himself far out of his penalty space when Barcelona are excessive up the pitch. He is required to be the sweeper-keeper.
The deduction is that this: Bayern will certainly be capable of wriggle freed from Barcelona’s excessive and mid-press in order that they will set runners free in behind the high-defence line. At which level Flick’s defenders might be pondering: “I do not actually again Peña to make too many one-v-one saves on this scenario.” They usually’ll be tempted to commit fouls which, if badly judged, will result in red-card conditions.
They should ignore that temptation, belief that their teammates can press higher as the sport goes ahead and belief that Peña can produce a efficiency pretty much as good as his work towards Osasuna and Alaves was startlingly dangerous.
If Flick’s males have any likelihood of beating Bayern, they merely cannot find yourself with 10 males for almost all of the match. A scenario which is much from unlikely.
Keep tuned, this match will train us rather a lot about Spain’s league-leaders forward of El Clásico vs. Actual Madrid on Saturday (Stream LIVE: 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+, U.S. solely). And about how powerful it should be to qualify for Champions League soccer within the new yr.