Convention championships present the ultimate probability for groups to vary their rankings earlier than the regionals draw, so we now know precisely what NQSs groups can obtain and what their ranges of attainable closing rankings are.
Daring scores have to be included as a part of the six and might not be dropped.
1. Oklahoma – 198.475
| Street rating 1 | 198.375 |
| Street rating 2 | 198.350 |
| Street rating 3 | 198.325 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.775 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 198.675 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 198.650 |
| NQS: | 198.475 |
Max Potential NQS: 198.500
Potential Rating Vary: 1
Oklahoma is completed, set with the primary total rating.
The Race for #2: Cal moved again forward of LSU this week, although it’s nonetheless up for grabs as to who will in the end end in 2nd. LSU must rating a minimal of 197.900 at SECs, in any other case the #2 spot is Cal’s. If LSU does get that 197.9 or extra, then it’s as much as how a lot Cal will increase its personal NQS and we’ll be pulling out the calculators (like mine isn’t already out) for the reason that two have nearly similar max attainable NQSs. Neither Cal nor LSU may be shifted from the 2-3 spots and will probably be #1 seeds at their respective regionals.
2. Cal – 198.180
| Street rating 1 | 198.550 |
| Street rating 2 | 198.400 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.950 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.500 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 198.100 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.950 |
| NQS: | 198.180 |
Max Potential NQS: 198.300
Potential Rating Vary: 2-3
3. LSU – 198.125
| Street rating 1 | 198.425 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.950 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.625 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.475 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 198.325 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 198.300 |
| NQS: | 198.125 |
Max Potential NQS: 198.295
Potential Rating Vary: 2-3
4. Florida – 197.905
| Street rating 1 | 198.225 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.925 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.700 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.150 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.900 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.850 |
| NQS: | 197.905 |
Max Potential NQS: 198.010
Potential Rating Vary: 4-6
Florida can’t transfer up larger than 4th however has the sting for the #4 rating (and #1 seed on the Florida residence regional) and would want 197.950 at SECs to clinch it. There’s a really exterior probability Florida might drop all the way in which to sixth, nevertheless it’s nearly certain that Florida will probably be in that 4-5 regional.
5. Utah – 197.840
| Street rating 1 | 197.875 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.775 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.725 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.300 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 198.075 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.750 |
| NQS: | 197.840 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.950
Potential Rating Vary: 4-7
Utah does have a possible shot to go Florida, although 4-5 go to the identical regional, so swapping locations wouldn’t do all that a lot. Completely securing the #5 rating it doesn’t matter what Kentucky does would take 198.125. Now, whether or not that’s truly the rating you need stays to be seen. Proper now, with host rearrangement, Utah and UCLA would each head to Florida, and I’d type of slightly be ranked sixth than fifth, however issues can (will?) change quickly on Saturday in that regard, particularly since UCLA has such a wide range of attainable rankings.
6. Kentucky – 197.810
| Street rating 1 | 197.925 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.800 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.600 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.100 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.950 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.775 |
| NQS: | 197.810 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.910
Potential Rating Vary: 4-9
Kentucky does have a shot to maneuver into that 4-5 regional, requiring at very minimal 197.750. So if Kentucky beats that mark, then we begin what Utah is scoring. A 197.925 may also be a objective rating for Kentucky since that might sew up at minimal the #6 rating.
7. Alabama – 197.760
| Street rating 1 | 198.025 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.675 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.575 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.075 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 198.000 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.525 |
| NQS: | 197.760 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.870
Potential Rating Vary: 5-9
To maneuver up any, Alabama wants 197.775 after which assist, however it’s attainable. Guaranteeing the #7 rating takes 197.925, and guaranteeing a spot within the high 8 (and #2 regional seeding) requires 197.800.
8. Denver – 197.700
| Street rating 1 | 197.750 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.625 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.350 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.025 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 198.000 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.775 |
| NQS: | 197.700 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.835
Potential Rating Vary: 6-10
Denver has a (for 2024) low highway rating to do away with with that 197.350, so the quantity required to begin to have a shot to maneuver up on Alabama is a fairly manageable 197.650, although once more that’s extra as much as Alabama and firm than Denver. As a result of UCLA has such a excessive potential peak now, guaranteeing the #8 rating for Denver would require 197.925, although in actuality I don’t anticipate it to take fairly take that a lot.
9. Michigan State – 197.615
| Street rating 1 | 198.050 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.475 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.275 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.150 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.725 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.550 |
| NQS: | 197.615 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.735
Potential Rating Vary: 8-10
Michigan State has the slight complication of internet hosting Huge Tens. (Presumably as a result of the Huge Ten hasn’t but discovered which you could cheat the system by internet hosting the convention championship at another native enviornment the place everybody will get to depend it as a highway rating? Or they’re, like, making an attempt to be fan pleasant or some bizarre idea?) Meaning MSU can’t do away with that 197.275 highway rating and has a little bit of a decrease max than anticipated.
The #8 spot is feasible relying on Denver’s rating. Normally the distinction between being #8 and #9 wouldn’t be vital as a result of they go to the identical regional, however doubtlessly not a lot this yr. Proper now, with Michigan sitting in tenth and at the moment having a bunch battle with Cal, we might in all probability see Michigan promoted to ninth and Michigan State dropped to tenth to resolve the host battle if it stayed this fashion. So there may very well be an precise distinction between ending eighth and ninth this yr.
However, to make sure ending at the least ranked at #9, MSU will probably be on the lookout for UCLA to attain beneath 197.575 at Pac-12s, which might verify that UCLA can not go.
10. Michigan – 197.545
| Street rating 1 | 197.650 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.500 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.400 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.725 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.625 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.550 |
| NQS: | 197.545 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.610
Potential Rating Vary: 10-12
Michigan can not rank any larger than tenth (although as famous above, might get swapped into the ninth seed if every part stays the identical) and can largely be on the mercy of UCLA’s rating. Michigan and Arkansas even have precisely the identical peak, so whereas Michigan has the sting in at the moment recorded scores, that might nonetheless go both approach.
11. UCLA – 197.520
| Street rating 1 | 197.425 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.175 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.100 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.550 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 198.075 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.825 |
| NQS: | 197.520 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.810
Potential Rating Vary: 6-12
UCLA’s 198.550 on Saturday has modified the sport by way of giving UCLA a huge peak NQS ought to that rating in some way be repeated in Utah this coming weekend. Essentially the most attainable objective for UCLA could be the #10 rating, which might be locked with 197.575 at Pac-12s, no matter what Michigan or Arkansas rating. That neighborhood of rating would additionally put UCLA in rivalry to catch Michigan State relying on what MSU does.
There’s additionally a mathematical probability for UCLA to place strain on groups within the high 8, although we’re speaking an enormous 198 plus assist from others for that to begin being one thing to consider.
12. Arkansas – 197.445
| Street rating 1 | 197.650 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.525 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.375 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 198.100 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.400 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.275 |
| NQS: | 197.445 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.610
Potential Rating Vary: 10-14
Arkansas might bounce up, although it might take at the least 197.650 out of the early session at SECs for that to be a thought of chance. Protecting the #12 rating could be assured with 197.425.
13. Missouri – 197.420
| Street rating 1 | 197.600 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.475 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.400 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.525 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.375 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.325 |
| NQS: | 197.420 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.475
Potential Rating Vary: 12-14
Missouri might swap with Arkansas, although 12 and 13 go to the identical regional (and Arkansas has potential host-conflict-movement anyway) so type of no matter with that. Staving off Auburn could be assured with 197.500.
14. Auburn – 197.315
| Street rating 1 | 197.575 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.100 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.050 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.725 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.425 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.425 |
| NQS: | 197.315 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.450
Potential Rating Vary: 12-15
Auburn’s probabilities to maneuver up would require at the least a 197.575. So if that occurs, then we begin to speak. A seeded place at regionals is already assured, however 197.275 would verify that Minnesota can not go.
The Race for a Seeding: 14 of the 16 seeded spots at regionals are locked up, with two nonetheless to be determined. The 2 highest potential NQSs among the many contenders belong to Minnesota and Georgia, with Oregon State shut behind, so listed here are their situations:
–If Minnesota scores 197.200 or extra, Minnesota clinches a seeding
–If Georgia scores 197.450 or extra, Georgia clinches a seeding
–If Oregon State scores 197.225 AND Georgia goes sub-197.075, Oregon State clinches a seeding
Ohio State is at the moment in sixteenth place however with a decrease peak NQS than these three, in order that they’ll be trying to max out their very own rating and root for others to not attain the above objectives. Principally, if everybody will get horrible scores, Ohio State clinches a seeding. In any other case, we get into situations like if Ohio State scores 197.350 AND Oregon State goes sub-197.200 AND Georgia goes sub-197.050, then Ohio State clinches a seeding.
Stanford, NC State, Kent State, and Arizona State are additionally technically nonetheless alive within the race for a seeding, although the probabilities are slimmer and require a whole lot of issues folding within the precise proper approach on the day, so we’ll see.
15. Minnesota – 197.190
| Street rating 1 | 197.725 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.525 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.400 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.175 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.950 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.900 |
| NQS: | 197.190 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.355
Potential Rating Vary: 14-18
16. Ohio State – 197.100
| Street rating 1 | 197.125 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.125 |
| Street rating 3 | 197.000 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.350 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.150 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.100 |
| NQS: | 197.100 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.170
Potential Rating Vary: 16-22
17. Oregon State – 197.085
| Street rating 1 | 197.075 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.950 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.775 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.575 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.400 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.225 |
| NQS: | 197.085 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.245
Potential Rating Vary: 15-22
18. Georgia – 197.030
| Street rating 1 | 197.450 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.975 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.350 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.550 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.300 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.075 |
| NQS: | 197.030 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.270
Potential Rating Vary: 15-22
19. NC State – 196.960
| Street rating 1 | 196.850 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.825 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.750 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.575 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.375 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 197.000 |
| NQS: | 196.960 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.125
Potential Rating Vary: 16-24
20. Stanford – 196.930
| Street rating 1 | 197.675 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.625 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.600 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.975 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.875 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.875 |
| NQS: | 196.930 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.205
Potential Rating Vary: 15-25
21. Arizona State – 196.920
| Street rating 1 | 196.975 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.850 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.700 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.600 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.250 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.825 |
| NQS: | 196.920 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.100
Potential Rating Vary: 16-25
22. Arizona – 196.885
| Street rating 1 | 196.950 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.875 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.850 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.000 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.900 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.850 |
| NQS: | 196.885 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.915
Potential Rating Vary: 22-29
23. Kent State – 196.860
| Street rating 1 | 197.725 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.100 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.950 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.200 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.925 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.125 |
| NQS: | 196.860 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.180
Potential Rating Vary: 16-30
24. Penn State – 196.825
| Street rating 1 | 197.000 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.875 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.650 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.025 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.825 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.775 |
| NQS: | 196.825 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.900
Potential Rating Vary: 22-30
25. Towson – 196.800
| Street rating 1 | 196.775 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.600 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.575 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.500 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.425 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.625 |
| NQS: | 196.800 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.975
Potential Rating Vary: 19-32
26. Nebraska – 196.755
| Street rating 1 | 197.375 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.500 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.125 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.150 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.125 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.875 |
| NQS: | 196.755 |
Max Potential NQS: 197.005
Potential Rating Vary: 19-33
27. Washington – 196.735
| Street rating 1 | 197.200 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.950 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.500 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.175 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.550 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.500 |
| NQS: | 196.735 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.875
Potential Rating Vary: 23-33
28. Maryland – 196.725
| Street rating 1 | 197.300 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.050 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.725 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 196.725 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.675 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.450 |
| NQS: | 196.725 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.895
Potential Rating Vary: 22-33
29. Clemson – 196.690
| Street rating 1 | 196.825 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.550 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.375 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.600 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 197.350 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.350 |
| NQS: | 196.690 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.940
Potential Rating Vary: 20-33
30. Boise State – 196.655
| Street rating 1 | 197.025 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.800 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.250 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 196.825 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.750 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.650 |
| NQS: | 196.655 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.810
Potential Rating Vary: 25-34
31. Illinois – 196.630
| Street rating 1 | 196.850 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.550 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.400 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.275 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.850 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.500 |
| NQS: | 196.630 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.805
Potential Rating Vary: 25-34
32. Southern Utah – 196.585
| Street rating 1 | 196.800 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.525 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.250 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 197.125 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.850 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.500 |
| NQS: | 196.585 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.760
Potential Rating Vary: 26-35
33. San Jose State – 196.555
| Street rating 1 | 196.675 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.650 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.600 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 196.575 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.500 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.450 |
| NQS: | 196.555 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.600
Potential Rating Vary: 32-35
33. BYU – 196.555
| Street rating 1 | 197.000 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.750 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.600 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 196.500 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.475 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.450 |
| NQS: | 196.555 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.665
Potential Rating Vary: 30-35
35. Ball State – 196.520
| Street rating 1 | 198.025 |
| Street rating 2 | 197.425 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.100 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 196.600 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.400 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.075 |
| NQS: | 196.520 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.910
Potential Rating Vary: 22-35
The Race for Regionals: It’s an unusually small group of groups nonetheless in limbo about their regionals destiny this yr with 35 of the 36 spots already locked in and three groups battling for that final spot. Right here’s the deal:
—If Iowa State scores 196.700 or higher, Iowa State clinches the spot.
—If Iowa State scores 196.375 or higher, Iowa is eradicated, although George Washington would possibly nonetheless be alive so long as GW has scored at the least 196.775.
–If George Washington scores beneath 196.475, George Washington is eradicated no matter what the others do.
–If Iowa scores beneath 196.250, Iowa is eradicated no matter what the others do.
36. Iowa State – 196.325
| Street rating 1 | 196.700 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.150 |
| Street rating 3 | 195.950 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 196.900 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.650 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.175 |
| NQS: | 196.325 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.515
Potential Rating Vary: 36-38
37. Iowa – 196.305
| Street rating 1 | 196.550 |
| Street rating 2 | 196.450 |
| Street rating 3 | 196.300 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 196.400 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.225 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.150 |
| NQS: | 196.305 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.385
Potential Rating Vary: 36-38
38. George Washington – 196.145
| Street rating 1 | 197.200 |
| Street rating 2 | 195.675 |
| Street rating 3 | 195.575 |
| Residence/highway rating 1 | 196.625 |
| Residence/highway rating 2 | 196.600 |
| Residence/highway rating 3 | 196.250 |
| NQS: | 196.145 |
Max Potential NQS: 196.470
Potential Rating Vary: 36-39
The present regionals seed distribution based mostly solely on rating could be as follows:
–1 Oklahoma, 8 Denver, 9 Michigan State, 16 Ohio State
–2 Cal (host), 7 Alabama, 10 Michigan (host), 15 Minnesota
–3 LSU, 6 Kentucky, 11 UCLA, 14 Auburn
–4 Florida (host), 5 Utah, 12 Arkansas (host), 13 Missouri
The cleanest host redistribution, during which you don’t transfer anybody multiple rating spot, would see Arkansas change with UCLA and Michigan change with Michigan State.
–1 Oklahoma, 8 Denver, 10 Michigan (host), 16 Ohio State
–2 Cal (host), 7 Alabama, 9 Michigan State, 15 Minnesota
–3 LSU, 6 Kentucky, 12 Arkansas (host), 14 Auburn
–4 Florida (host), 5 Utah, 11 UCLA, 13 Missouri
If I have been to trrrryyyy to map out geographical placements of the present 36 into these regionals (which is all the time a tenuous recreation), right here’s the place I’m with it:
| MICHIGAN | CAL | ARKANSAS | FLORIDA |
| Oklahoma | Cal | LSU | Florida |
| Denver | Alabama | Kentucky | Utah |
| Michigan | Michigan St | Arkansas | UCLA |
| Ohio St | Minnesota | Auburn | Missouri |
| Kent St | Oregon St | Arizona St | Georgia |
| Penn St | Stanford | Arizona | NC State |
| Maryland | Washington | Nebraska | Towson |
| Play ins | |||
| Illinois | Boise St | So. Utah | Clemson |
| Iowa St | San Jose St | BYU | Ball St |
I made some extent right here of making an attempt to maintain the highest 28 groups out of the play-ins and put groups 29-36 into them (therefore geographical weirds like Ball State going to Florida as a substitute of Michigan), however the committee undoubtedly doesn’t try this. NC State in 2021, Iowa State in 2022, Arizona in 2023. All acquired the scores required to have a rating excessive sufficient to keep away from the play-ins however acquired demoted into them based mostly on the state they’re in. #28 Maryland may very well be at risk of that proper now in the event that they get put within the Florida regional.
There’s additionally a enjoyable provision within the guide the place they’re speculated to attempt to keep away from convention rematches within the placement of groups whereas additionally inserting them based mostly on their geography, which…how each issues? Though beginning subsequent yr, I suppose that turns into simple.