March Insanity students could debate this, however it’s broadly accepted that there are two kinds of NCAA event Cinderellas: 1) The 13-16 seed that pulls off a primary spherical stunner and infrequently makes it to a Candy 16 or past, and a pair of) The 8-12 seed (particularly from a mid-major convention) that makes a run all the best way to a regional ultimate or Ultimate 4.
There are many choices on this yr’s area that match one of many two descriptions. Let’s take a look at the six with the perfect alternative to make good on their Cinderella potential.
1. Samford
Your complete nation is about to get a briefing on “Bucky Ball” this week.
The time period comes from Samford head coach Bucky McMillan, who’s in his fourth season with the Bulldogs. McMillan has principally spent his whole life within the Birmingham space, and was employed at Samford in 2020 after a profitable 12-year stint as the top coach at Mountain Brook Excessive Faculty. He had by no means spent a second as a school head coach or assistant.
The gamble has paid off in a serious means. McMillan has been named the Southern Convention’s Coach of the Yr in every of the final three seasons, and this yr he has the Bulldogs within the NCAA event for simply the third time ever and the primary time since 2000.
Don’t be shocked if that isn’t the place this Samford staff’s story ends.
A part of “Bucky Ball” is urgent for a full 40 minutes. Off makes, off misses, off turnovers, off the whole lot. That’s not precisely a super matchup for a Kansas staff that’s coping with accidents to its two star gamers.
Need extra proof to assist the upset choose? Samford shoots a ton of threes and it makes a ton of threes. The Bulldogs are a hitting at a 39.3 % clip from past the arc, the eighth-best mark of any staff in Division-I.
It sounds unusual to say out loud, however Samford over Kansas is a really dwell shot.
2. Oregon
Dana Altman’s Oregon Geese are coming off per week through which they received the Pac-12 event, realizing that it was their solely path to the NCAA event. The final time that occurred was 2019, when Oregon was awarded a 12-seed within the Huge Dance and superior all the best way to the Candy earlier than narrowly falling to eventual nationwide champion Virginia.
Historical past might very simply repeat itself this week.
The Geese are an 11-seed with a reasonably pleasant first spherical matchup towards a South Carolina staff that has overachieved all season. Win that one and a matchup towards Altman’s old skool, Creighton, might be ready in spherical two.
Nobody flips disappointment on its head fairly like Altman. The final 3 times his Geese have returned to the NCAA event after a yr or two of lacking out, he’s taken them to the event’s second weekend. With talks in current weeks about him needing to retire or the varsity needing to maneuver in a distinct course, it feels much more doubtless that this might be per week the place forces the narrative to do a 180.
3. James Madison
It’s time for a 12-seed revival.
The 12 over 5 has been America’s favourite first spherical upset choose for some time now, however lately, the 12-line hasn’t lived as much as their historic hype. Simply two 12-seeds have made runs to the second weekend of the event over the past decade, and within the 68-team period (since 2011), there have been simply as many No. 15 seeds to make the Candy 16 as No. 12s (4).
Principally, 12-seeds want a lift. Enter James Madison.
Each Ultimate 4 however one since 2012 has featured a minimum of one staff seeded seventh or worse. I believe the Dukes have a very likelihood to be that staff this yr.
The South Area has mega “might crumble rapidly and dramatically” potential.
Prime-seeded Houston has been rock stable for many of this season, however is coming off of an eye-opening (in all of the unsuitable methods) 69-41 loss to Iowa State within the Huge 12 event title recreation. Second-seeded Marquette performed the complete Huge East event with out star level guard Tyler Kolek, who additionally missed the ultimate three video games of the common season with an indirect harm. Third-seeded Kentucky epitomizes the outdated cliche of “can beat anybody within the event and lose to anybody within the event. And fourth-seeded Duke has been so upset by its play in its final two video games, that Blue Satan gamers reportedly went the notorious “gamers solely assembly” route after their fast return house from the NCAA event.
James Madison is 31-3. They opened their season with a real street victory over a Michigan State staff that’s within the area as a 9-seed. They shoot the ball nicely, they’ve guards who deal with the ball nicely, and so they defend nicely.
If they will get previous Wisconsin, this might be a staff that sees the world burning round them and takes full benefit.
4. South Dakota State
Look, a 15 has overwhelmed a 2 in three straight NCAA tournaments, so it could really feel unsuitable to have an inventory like this with out that includes a minimum of one 15-seed, proper?
I like this Iowa State staff and I like T.J. Otzelberger as a head coach, however for weeks now, the Cyclones have matched the statistical profile of previous well-seeded groups which have flamed out early within the NCAA event. I do know they rolled to the Huge 12 event title, I do know the speak round them is about how they need to have been the No. 5 total seed, I do know … I’m simply sayin’.
Moreover, there have been 23 No. 2 seeds in event historical past that began the season unranked and entered the event ranked within the high 10. Fifteen of these 23 groups (together with Marquette final season) have didn’t make it to the Candy 16. One staff suits that description this yr: Iowa State.
That is South Dakota State’s seventh NCAA event look since 2012. It’s a program that expects to be right here. The Jackrabbits, like the opposite little guys featured on this listing, shoot the ball extraordinarily nicely (36.2 % from three as a staff, Fiftieth-best in D-I). They’re additionally coming into March Insanity using the nation’s fifth-longest successful streak at eight straight video games.
Regardless of all their success, SDSU has by no means received a recreation within the NCAA event. Everybody on this planet exterior of New England thought they had been going to beat Windfall two years in the past, and it didn’t occur. Possibly they only wanted extra of a component of shock on their aspect.
5. Charleston
Like South Dakota State, Charleston isn’t fairly as well-regarded as they had been the final time they made the NCAA event two seasons in the past.
The Cougars are 27-7 and have received 12 straight video games — the nation’s second-longest successful streak — however they haven’t any wins over groups within the NCAA event or groups ranked within the high 100 on KenPom. What they do have is a head coach in Pat Kelsey who’s broadly thought to be one of many brightest younger stars within the sport, and an erratic first spherical opponent in Alabama who appears to scream first spherical upset … or 35-point first spherical rout.
The metrics have cherished this Alabama staff all season lengthy, however the Crimson Tide’s play, particularly of late, has made lots of people surprise why.
Alabama has 11 losses, probably the most of any staff seeded on the highest 4 strains. They’ve misplaced 4 of their final six, and have allowed over 100 factors in three of these 4 losses. On the flip aspect, they’ve additionally scored 100 factors or extra in 4 of their final 9 video games.
If ‘Bama is enjoying its A or A- recreation, there’s not a lot Charleston goes to have the ability to do about it. If ‘Bama is enjoying its C or C- recreation, the Cougars completely have the expertise, the self-discipline and the teaching to take full benefit.
6. Drake
A ten-seed doesn’t actually match the “Cinderella” moniker … except it’s a staff (particularly a mid-major) making a run to a regional ultimate or past. Drake can with out query be that staff.
Whereas everybody was targeted on Indiana State for the final month, the Bulldogs is likely to be poised to be the Missouri Valley staff everybody winds up remembering from this season.
They’ve a bon-a-fide star in Tucker DeVries (coach Darian DeVries’ son), who has been the MVC Participant of the Yr every of the final two seasons. He’s completely ok to have a type of Wally Szczerbiak two-week runs that everybody remembers perpetually.
The Bulldogs are within the nation’s high 40 in just about each offensive stat that issues, they’re stable defensively, they’re among the finest rebounding groups within the nation, and maybe most significantly, they appear to have a positive draw.
They’d in all probability want another person to deal with UConn for them within the high half of the South Area, however that occurred, Drake might be this yr’s Florida Atlantic.