Dylan Stop commerce: Inspecting A.J. Preller’s penchant for buying and selling away Padres’ prime prospects over previous decade

A couple of years again, a veteran scout advised CBS Sports activities that San Diego Padres normal supervisor A.J. Preller was adept at buying and selling prospects he did not like. For no matter purpose, and who can say why the human mind captures some reminiscences in snowcone trend and lets others fall nearer to the palm of the glove, that comment pops to thoughts at any time when Preller makes a giant deal – such because the one commerce he orchestrated earlier this week, sending three children to the Chicago White Sox in alternate for starter Dylan Stop.

To be honest, Preller has traded a lot of prospects throughout his time atop San Diego’s baseball operations division. It stands to purpose he is moved many, many younger gamers that he appreciated. (Final 12 months, proficient scribe Zach Crizer famous: “There are 27 such former members of the group – greater than a full roster’s price – who’ve performed elsewhere within the majors already this season and will theoretically nonetheless be below San Diego’s group management.”) Nonetheless, we have been ready for the precise time to look at Preller’s observe document of buying and selling prime prospects. The Stop commerce provides us a great purpose to do it.

Earlier than we get to our findings, it is necessary to contextualize Preller. He is change into one of many sport’s most often-discussed executives – each inside and out of doors the trade – for numerous causes, together with his latest propensity for buying as many star gamers as attainable. Preller has additionally developed a popularity for being indefatigable, courting again to his days as a scout with the Texas Rangers, when he would spend an ungodly period of time on the street. (The Padres, in flip, are mentioned to demand plenty of their scouting employees.) Different executives theorize that, even now, Preller believes he can outwork and outscout everybody else as a way of gaining a aggressive benefit. 

How correct is that characterization? Solely Preller is aware of for certain. However that, plus his willingness to commerce his prime prospects in an period the place most normal managers over-index on surplus worth, makes him a compelling government. With that in thoughts, let’s get to the purpose and try Preller’s historical past of buying and selling prime prospects. This is a year-by-year breakdown of the gamers who had been dealt inside a 12 months of being ranked inside the highest 5 of the Padres’ system by Baseball America. Do observe that the gamers are listed so as of their rating: the primary participant was one of the best ranked, and so forth:

Fittingly, that is 10 prime prospects traded in 10 years. Evaluating how every of the gamers has developed since is an uneven train – some had been traded once they had been on the cusp of the large leagues, others once they had been nonetheless of their teenagers – and it is price caveating that there is not any assure the gamers would have met the identical destiny had they remained with the Padres. However, let’s proceed to interrupt down the ten:

• Turner has been, by far, one of the best participant of the pack. (He is additionally had as a lot time as anybody to show it.) He is a two-time All-Star with greater than 30 profession Wins Above Alternative to his identify. The Padres had chosen him thirteenth general simply months earlier than Preller took over. He rapidly spun him off as part of a three-team commerce that netted the Padres Wil Myers, amongst different forgettable characters. It is honest to put in writing that Preller wished that one again because the years handed.
• Abrams does not have Turner’s physique of labor (and he most likely by no means will), however he is coming off a career-best season that noticed him publish a 95 OPS+ and earn 3.4 Wins Above Alternative. He is a dynamic offensive participant who fell simply two house runs wanting a 20-40 season on the age of twenty-two. The Padres have a loaded infield — to the extent that prime prospect Jackson Merrill has been transformed to the outfield in the interim — however some Padres followers is perhaps extra delicate to feeling the sting of buying and selling Abrams now that Juan Soto is now not with San Diego. 
• Wooden and Thorpe haven’t but debuted however stay promising prospects. CBS Sports activities just lately ranked Wooden, one other member of that Soto deal, because the sixth finest teenager within the minors on account of his immense energy and on-base expertise. He has a famous person upside if every thing clicks on the sport’s highest degree. Thorpe, traded twice for the reason that finish of final season (together with within the different Soto deal), is not as extremely acclaimed. He does have a devastating changeup and the possibility to be a authentic big-league starter with the White Sox before later.
• Hassell, who Preller appreciated sufficient to draft eighth general in 2020, additionally has not debuted. His inventory has been trending down since even earlier than the commerce. Final season, he hit .221/.324/.321 whereas spending many of the 12 months in Double-A. Hassell carried out higher within the Arizona Fall League, however even then he hit .290/.366/.348. His lack of ability to transform his uncooked energy into in-game energy, lengthy a speaking level, stays a crucial weak spot and one that would forestall him from having a significant profession on the big-league degree until issues change rapidly.
• Urías had a few good seasons with the Brewers after being dealt for Trent Grisham. He is now on his third group in a 12 months, although, suggesting he wants one other gem quickly to keep away from falling off the radar solely. We doubt the Padres would wish to undo that one, provided that Grisham carried out higher general.
• Wisler had a number of good seasons down the street as a reliever however didn’t dwell as much as his prospect hype as a starter. He hasn’t pitched within the majors since 2022. Ross, conversely, had a number of strong seasons as a starter and stays within the majors. He is handled accidents all through his profession, to the extent that he will not make his one centesimal big-league look till this 12 months — when he is already amassed greater than six years of main league service time.
• Trammell hasn’t labored out in any respect, however we do suppose Preller regrets the commerce that despatched him – and extra notably, Ty France and Andrés Muñoz – to the Mariners. The identical is not true for the swap that despatched Patiño (now with the Padres once more after falling off two different rosters) to the Rays, together with Francisco Mejía, Blake Hunt, and Cole Wilcox, for lefty and reigning Cy Younger winner Blake Snell. 

(We do really feel obligated to notice that our methodology was extraordinarily restricted right here and did not account for a number of different notable prospects that Preller has traded over time. Some, like Max Fried, developed into stars; others, like MacKenzie Gore, look like strong big-league gamers; and even others, like Xavier Edwards, are beneath that.)

Buying and selling Turner was regrettable, and time will inform on Abrams, Wooden, and Thorpe. General, although, Preller most likely hasn’t traded from the highest of his system as typically as you may suppose, and when he has, he is finished so with out making many errors. Credit score that to Preller’s sharp eye, to luck, or no matter drive or mixture you need. 

What does the above imply for the Stop commerce? In all probability not a lot – even for those who suppose Preller’s observe document on prime prospects is pure talent and holds predictive energy, he is nonetheless erred earlier than and certain will once more. It does, nevertheless, imply that we’ll proceed to consider that scout’s remark at any time when Preller decides it is time to make a splash.