The Los Angeles Dodgers will carry within the new Main League Baseball season on Wednesday morning once they open a two-game set in opposition to the San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea. Each contests shall be held on the Gocheok Sky Dome, the host venue for the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Group. This can symbolize the primary time in historical past MLB video games have been performed in South Korea.
The Dodgers are a becoming alternative to steer off the yr, as no workforce enters the yr with extra hype or potential. Credit score the Dodgers’ buzz to an offseason that noticed them signal Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto – a pair that may be interchangeably described because the winter’s high two free brokers and the very best hitter and pitcher obtainable – whereas additionally acquiring right-hander Tyler Glasnow, left-hander James Paxton, and outfielder Teoscar Hernández, amongst different notable veterans.
To suppose, these stars be a part of a roster that already employed former Most Priceless Participant Award winners Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and in addition gained 100 video games final yr for the sixth time previously seven full-length seasons. So accustomed to profitable are these Dodgers that any accomplishment wanting a wins report or World Collection title is met with a yawn – or, extra seemingly, requires the workforce to fireside supervisor Dave Roberts.
Simply how good are the Dodgers purported to be this season? Very, based on the assorted forecast fashions. SportsLine has them down for 103 wins, whereas Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA mannequin says 101 and FanGraphs’ ZiPS system represents the low vote at 93. (To be honest, that, in ZiPS’ eyes, is sweet for the second finest report in MLB behind the Atlanta Braves.) Quite than reaffirm as soon as extra that these Dodgers are more likely to be excellent, we determined to conduct a thought experiment by asking ourselves: what would it not take for the Dodgers to overlook the playoffs for the primary time since 2012?
Beneath, we have recognized 5 danger elements – all life like, if not possible or seemingly – that, in the event that they occurred, might derail the hype practice that’s the 2024 Dodgers.
1. The rotation is compromised
We will all however assure that the Dodgers are going to expertise turbulence with their rotation. In truth, it is already occurring. They will enter the season with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Emmet Sheehan obtainable to pitch, and that is simply the beginning of it. They will even be with out Dustin Might, Tony Gonsolin, and high prospect Nick Frasso, who will miss the season after present process shoulder surgical procedure.
All these absences will depart the Dodgers with a beginning 5 that features Glasnow, Yamamoto, Paxton, and second-year righty Bobby Miller. (Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are in a contest for the fifth and ultimate spot within the rotation.) You do not have to work onerous to identify the draw back potential with that group.
Yamamoto is essentially the most achieved pitcher on the earth to not but pitch in a MLB common season recreation. He gained three consecutive MVP and Cy Younger equal Awards to shut out his Nippon Skilled Baseball profession, and there is each cause to imagine he’ll have the ability to stand out in MLB. Nonetheless, it will be comprehensible if he experiences some pains all through his first season: not solely does MLB use a special ball than NPB, nevertheless it additionally employs a pitch clock and a tighter schedule. In addition to, Yamamoto is a human being, and it is comprehensible if he takes time to settle into a brand new nation.
Glasnow and Paxton have had their justifiable share of success within the majors, however each really feel riskier than the common bear from a well being perspective. To wit, Glasnow has averaged 72 innings during the last three seasons; Paxton, in the meantime, has thrown 117 innings because the begin of the 2020 marketing campaign … with 96 of these coming in 2023.
Then there’s Miller, who set a career-high in innings with 138 between the majors and the minors. It stands to cause the Dodgers will need to be conservative together with his workload, that means that he is most likely due for a gradual enhance in innings pitched. That, plus the need to ease Yamamoto into an MLB schedule, might compel the Dodgers to show to a six-pitcher rotation at occasions to maintain issues churning.
As such, it is simpler to check a state of affairs the place the Dodgers are digging into their depth early and sometimes. Los Angeles does have an unbelievable variety of intriguing younger arms on the best way – preserve the names Kyle Damage and River Ryan in thoughts – however there isn’t any assure these prospects will excel instantly. Simply final yr, the aforementioned Grove, Stone, and Sheehan mixed for a 6.19 ERA in 161 innings pitched.
After all, we all know that if the Dodgers rotation did expertise their absolute worst-case end result, the entrance workplace would seemingly simply commerce for reinforcements on the deadline. That is why we’re itemizing it as certainly one of a number of danger elements.
2. Excessive-leverage hijinx
Too typically, we view the pitching workers as two separate parts: the rotation and the bullpen. It is a wise distinction due to the completely different roles and expectations, nevertheless it misses the cascading impact at play – notably these days, when groups now not anticipate their starters to reliably work deep into video games.
If the rotation proves unfit to hold a heavy load, that would put extra stress on the Dodgers bullpen, which might result in some underperformance from the reduction corps. The best manner for a workforce to publish a poorer report than anticipated is to play poorly in late-and-close and one-run conditions. Simply ask the 2023 Padres about that. (San Diego went 9-23 in one-run video games and 2-12 in extra-inning contests en path to a disappointing 82-80 mark.)
The Dodgers have confirmed to be nice at discovering helpful bullpen arms once they want them, however we’ll level out that they’ve a good quantity of arms with error bars. What occurs if Joe Kelly reverts to his White Sox type? Or if Ryan Brasier pitches extra like he did with the Purple Sox? Or if Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, and J.P. Feyereisen damage themselves once more? As with the rotation, it is all in regards to the sequencing and severity. A number of the above is more likely to move. All of it, directly? Not as a lot.
Absolutely the doomsday state of affairs, the place the rotation and bullpen each expertise their well being and efficiency woes concurrently, is distant however not inconceivable. The snag is, but once more, that the Dodgers would absolutely transfer on and discover a repair to their reduction points.
Talking of which, let’s transfer on to the subsequent part.
3. Harm bug disrupts
We’re keen on mentioning that participant well being is the nice unknown for public evaluation. We can’t determine who will (or will not) get damage in any given season with confidence. That is unlucky as a result of seasons are sometimes determined by that invisible power.
An apparent danger issue to those Dodgers, then, is that if the harm bug took up residence of their clubhouse, sidelining quite a few gamers for numerous lengths of time.
We hope you agree that is a good commentary to make. Alas, we should concede that the Dodgers have established a precedent the place they’re capable of overcome mass accidents. Final season, they recorded the second most days missed due to harm within the majors – behind solely the Los Angeles Angels – and so they nonetheless gained 100 video games.
We are going to be aware that the who issues in these instances. Your fifth reliever lacking 15 days counts the identical as your beginning catcher, however one has a better influence on wins and losses. These Dodgers are absurdly deep, although, to the extent that the harm bug must influence a number of high performers to wreak carnage. Ben Clemens, a must-read writer at FanGraphs, lately revealed that Los Angeles could be projected to complete at .500 even when their 4 finest gamers have been faraway from the roster.
Maybe it is price viewing that discovering from a special angle.
4. Stars scuffle
Perhaps a extra imposing danger issue for the Dodgers is not their high stars – Ohtani, Betts, Freeman included – lacking time due to harm. Perhaps it is them collectively having down years. In spite of everything, when a star participant is damage, they’re changed within the lineup by a participant who has an opportunity to be efficient; when a star participant is slumping, the workforce is unlikely to bench them. That may find yourself being a drag on the lineup if the spiels stack.
There’s no cause to suppose that the aforementioned trio will battle, and there particularly is not any cause to suppose all three will accomplish that for extended stretches. This whole piece is a thought experiment, nevertheless, so let’s proceed to play satan’s advocate whereas acknowledging that typically nice gamers have spotty years.
So, say Ohtani has bother discovering his rhythm with out pitching (he didn’t expertise that problem final time he could not pitch); say Betts has a exhibiting like 2017 (nonetheless good), and say Freeman begins to indicate the indicators of damage and tear that come from being 34 and reliably taking part in virtually each single recreation (he is missed a complete of 11 video games in six seasons). Below such a state of affairs, the Dodgers would obtain considerably worse manufacturing than they anticipated over the course of two,000 premium plate appearances.
Shy of the MVP Three utterly cratering, some collective underperformance would haven’t any likelihood of sinking the Dodgers by itself. But it surely might do some harm if paired with just a few of those different danger elements.
5. Surprising ascents
The Dodgers have not simply been a relentless presence within the playoffs since 2013, they have been the kings of the Nationwide League West. For this danger issue, we’re pondering again to the 2021 season, the one time they’ve fallen wanting a division crown in 11 years. That was the yr that the San Francisco Giants shockingly gained the West and 107 video games.
Do we expect any of the Dodgers’ NL West foes are more likely to have the same yr? No, although we actually suppose the playoffs are potential for the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants. However that is the purpose, proper? Nobody anticipated the 2021 Giants to do what they did. Bizarre issues occur each evening and yearly in baseball. If a kind of West rivals have been to blaze the sector all summer season with surprising brilliance and seize the division, it will scale back the Dodgers’ playoff probabilities to an extent.
Granted, that chance could be magnified if the playoffs hadn’t been expanded in recent times. As it’s, the Dodgers must see a few of these different danger elements come to fruition for them to be at critical danger of lacking out on October. And is not that the kicker of this complete train? Right here we’re, dreaming up an unhealthy cocktail of misgivings that will wreck most groups within the title of making an attempt to jot down the Dodgers out of the postseason … and we nonetheless cannot persuade ourselves that it will be sufficient.
Should you ask us, that could be the very best praise you may give these Dodgers: they give the impression of being so good and so deep on paper that it is onerous to determine how they might fail, even when approaching their season with pessimistic eyes.