Earlier than the beginning of the 2024 season, NESN.com is evaluating a number of noteworthy prospects within the Boston Pink Sox group, utilizing perception and evaluation from business specialists to gauge every participant’s outlook for the upcoming marketing campaign. Subsequent up: Luis Perales.
It’s no secret the Pink Sox farm system is skinny on beginning pitching prospects.
A new infrastructure, led by chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, may change that within the coming years, however the evolution, very like the event of prospects, doesn’t occur in a single day. Endurance is required.
That stated, there are a number of hurlers down within the minors who stand out. And that group contains Luis Perales, a 20-year-old right-hander from Venezuela.
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Right here’s the whole lot it’s essential learn about Perales earlier than the 2024 season.
Background
It’s not straightforward to identify expertise on the worldwide market, the place gamers are so younger and so uncooked of their growth that organizations should sift via boundless uncertainty to pinpoint optimistic traits they assume may translate to long-term success on the baseball diamond stateside. Nonetheless, there are some gamers who pop, for one cause or one other, and Perales didn’t precisely fall into that bucket immediately, signing for $75,000 in July 2019.
But the funding appears higher with every passing day. One may argue Perales is the finest pitching prospect within the Pink Sox system, an ascent that started within the Dominican Republic’s Difficult League that summer season and progressed to Single-A Salem and Excessive-A Greenville in 2023.
It hasn’t been a straight-line trajectory. Perales was restricted to at least one pitching look (two innings) in 2021 — the season after the pandemic-induced minor-league shutdown — and had a restricted workload in 2022 that included not more than three innings per begin. However the expertise is obvious.
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The truth is, the Pink Sox are so excessive on Perales they added him to their 40-man roster this offseason to guard him from the MLB Rule 5 Draft. And he subsequently participated within the Rookie Growth Program, one other indication he’s very a lot on the radar as Boston plots its path ahead.
Scouting report
Perales misses bats at a excessive clip, evident by the 11.5 strikeouts per 9 innings he recorded final season in 21 begins (89 2/3 innings) break up between Salem and Greenville. The issue? He additionally points a ton of free passes.
Perales walked 5 batters per 9 innings in 2023, a continuation of the command/management points he confirmed in 2022 and the primary trigger for concern because the hard-throwing righty enters 2024.
“Perales has some elite fastball metrics, in terms of form and the whole lot,” Ian Cundall, director of scouting for SoxProspects.com, just lately instructed NESN.com. “However what’s going to occur together with his command? He had a excessive stroll fee final yr, after which he gave up a ton of house runs, too. And that’s a nasty combo. If you happen to’re doing that in Excessive-A, you might have issues about how that’s going to occur towards higher hitters. He’s received to essentially tighten up the command and management, after which discover extra consistency together with his secondary pitches.”
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Don’t get it twisted, although. Perales jumps off the web page from a pure stuff standpoint. As Cundall famous, Perales’ fastball — which sits at 94-96 mph and tops out at 99 mph — has a ton of vertical break, a attribute the younger pitcher can lean on to generate swinging strikes, notably up within the zone.
Perales additionally throws a slider and a changeup, each of that are works in progress however nonetheless may grow to be weapons down the street with extra refinement. In spite of everything, most pitchers can’t reside solely on their fastball.
“It’s straightforward to get swing-and-miss, it’s straightforward to get outs in Low-A whenever you throw a fastball 70 p.c of the time,” Pink Sox director of participant growth Brian Abraham instructed MassLive final summer season. “However the actuality might be that they’re outliers — the few pitchers within the huge leagues which are ready to do this. They’re in all probability Corridor of Famers if we really checked out related fastball profiles that throw it that a lot or they’re bullpen arms. So, I feel getting him to get off his fastball extra, work his secondaries in, work on a cutter that may complement his slider.”
Perales, who turns 21 in April, is listed at 6-foot-1, 160 kilos, so he’s not probably the most bodily imposing power. Simply don’t sleep on the arm pace or his athleticism on the mound.
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“Perales has some elite fastball metrics, in terms of form and the whole lot.”
Ian Cundall, director of scouting for SoxProspects.com, on Luis Perales
Most-likely end result: Late-inning reliever.
We’re coping with loads of variance right here, because it’s a profile that lends itself to a excessive ceiling and a low flooring on the major-league degree. Perales must reveal he can deal with a starter’s workload — we simply haven’t actually seen it but — whereas chopping down on the walks and fine-tuning his secondary pitches. Absent that step ahead, it’s laborious to say definitively he’ll stick as a starter, although the Pink Sox will proceed to groom him as such.
“There’s particular reliever danger with each,” Cundall stated of Perales and fellow Pink Sox pitching prospect Wikelman Gonzalez.
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Even when Perales in the end transitions to the bullpen, he may achieve this in significant trend, both as a multi-inning weapon or a high-leverage, late-game stopper.
“Perales has an alien fastball. Slider is fairly good, too. He simply must command it,” Baseball America’s Geoff Pontes just lately instructed NESN.com. “If he throws sufficient strikes, I feel he’s going to be an awesome reliever. I don’t actually assume he’s a starter. I’d like to see it. I hope he proves me unsuitable. You’re in all probability dwelling with a 70-80 grade fastball and a superb breaking ball. He’s received a adequate changeup that possibly he fools some guys with it. I take a look at him extra as a more in-depth than a starter. There’s no cause to kill the starter stuff but. He’s going to study rather a lot in that function that’s going to assist him. He’s a big-league arm, although.”
Finest-case situation: Mid-rotation starter.
Perales and Gonzalez seemingly are neck and neck so far as Pink Sox pitching prospects go. So, what separates the 2 up-and-coming right-handers? It may very well be the previous’s potential to blossom right into a rotation piece.
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“I feel Perales has a barely higher likelihood to begin. He’s a bit bit greater, and I feel the fastball has a bit extra going for it than simply throwing laborious,” Cundall stated. “Gonzalez is extra like a stuff fastball, whereas Perales has these good metrics. Whereas Gonzalez clearly on uncooked stuff, he simply throws more durable. He’s received that higher secondary pitch, too, with that breaking ball. So, I’d say it’s simpler to dream on him as a two-pitch reliever. Perales, I feel, has a barely higher likelihood to begin, simply because of his dimension.
“However it’s all going to return all the way down to command and management for each. That’s the place the similarity is. In the event that they’re not throwing constant strikes and high quality strikes, it’s not going to matter how good the stuff is with regard to a starter.”
SoxProspects rating: No. 7
Gonzalez is additional alongside in his growth, having reached Double-A Portland in 2023. MLB Pipeline ranked him No. 7 within the Pink Sox system, 4 spots forward of Perales.
However SoxProspects.com is barely larger on Perales, due to the aforementioned long-term outlook, slotting him in at No. 7, with Gonzalez checking in at No. 9. (Outfielder Wiley Abreu is ranked No. 8.)
“I feel it reveals how a lot they worth Perales that they have been prepared to place a man like that on the 40-man who in all probability received’t even begin (the season) within the excessive minors,” Cundall stated.
Fenway forecast
Perales in all probability will begin the season in Greenville, with the prospect to advance to Portland in some unspecified time in the future in 2024. After that, a potential big-league promotion will begin to crystalize a bit bit extra. Simply don’t count on to see him pitch in Boston till 2025 or 2026.