Main League Baseball’s novice draft is now just a few weeks away. Come Sunday, July 14, the Cleveland Guardians will make the highest choice for the primary time in franchise historical past. We just lately surveyed the Guardians’ choices at No. 1, noting that Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana stays the business’s greatest guess at who first-year scouting director Ethan Purser will take. If, as an alternative, the Guardians had been to go off our pre-draft rankings — and belief that Purser is extra clever than that — they’d decide Georgia third baseman/outfielder Charlie Condon.
No participant helped themselves extra this cycle than Condon did. As we famous in his rankings capsule, “Condon got here into the season perceived as a second-tier collegiate who wanted an enormous spring to cement his spot within the prime 10.” Thoughts you, scouts thought he would go someplace within the prime half of the primary spherical; they only weren’t satisfied that he was a adequate hitter to beat what on the time appeared to be a considerably generic right-handed hitting nook outfielder profile coming off a forgettable stint within the Cape Cod League. (He posted a .648 OPS throughout 11 video games.)
To Condon’s credit score, he put within the work and placed on performances which have modified minds. So, simply how did he go from a mid-first candidate to arguably the very best participant within the class? Listed below are three causes that specify his ascent.Â
1. Excellent efficiency in opposition to prime competitorsÂ
The draft is a troublesome mechanism to excel at and an unimaginable one to grasp.Â
Through the years, groups have crafted evaluative tips they use to enhance their processes all the identical. A type of includes placing further weight on efficiency in opposition to high-quality competitors. It is good when a participant dominates weaker foes, however what groups actually need to see is that participant rising to the event in opposition to the very best — on an novice degree, these events present clues about how the participant will carry out once they’re surrounded by different professionals.
Condon, by advantage of enjoying at Georgia, had what quantities to a multiplier within the type of the SEC. Everybody is aware of that is the very best baseball convention on the collegiate degree. Due to this fact, a participant who can excel at one of many SEC colleges — and notably throughout convention play — can ship their inventory hovering in a fast method. (The inverse impact can also be doable, albeit not relevant right here.)Â
Positive sufficient, Condon batted .433/.556/1.009 this season with 37 dwelling runs and 21 further extra-base hits. What’s arguably extra necessary is that he hit .412/.533/.983 with 19 of these dwelling runs throughout 30 SEC video games. He additionally walked 5 extra instances than he struck out and persistently posted blistering exit velocities.Â
It isn’t a stretch to jot down that Condon was, by far, the best participant in SEC play, both. His 1.517 OPS was 131 OPS factors greater than second-place finisher Christian Moore, himself additionally a probable top-20 decide. Every time a participant dominates like that in opposition to SEC competitors, it’s important to contemplate it a optimistic indication that they will have the ability to make a profitable transition to the professionals.
2. Stunning protection
Condon did not simply impress on the offensive aspect of issues. He additionally fared higher than anticipated defensively — that regardless of being tasked with taking on third base for the primary time in school, in addition to seeing motion at every of the outfield spots, together with 11 video games in heart. Certainly, he carried out nicely sufficient on the sizzling nook that he could start his skilled profession there, suggesting he has an outdoor shot at offering further defensive worth.Â
That does not essentially imply Condon will stick there all the best way to the majors; it is commonplace for groups to audition current draftees at positions they do not moderately anticipate them to beat. Moreover, a membership who needs to hasten Condon’s arrival to their big-league lineup could skip the formality and transfer him to a unique nook spot.
Condon does have the prospect to make historical past if he can function a most-days third baseman within the majors. He would, at 6-foot-6, turn out to be the tallest common third baseman to ever qualify for a batting title, based on Baseball Reference’s database. Alec Bohm, at 6-foot-5, is the present clubhouse chief. Kris Bryant owned a share of that title previous to shifting to the outfield. In any other case, the final hot-corner large was Troy Glaus. He too measured in at 6-foot-5.Â
3. The Goldilocks choice
This class has been estimated by varied expertise evaluators to have round a dozen high quality prospects.Â
A lot of these 12 discover themselves entangled in some philosophical debate or one other. Bazzana, for instance, is perceived to be maxed-out bodily, an attribute that offers some scouting departments pause. Condon, in a bizarre sense, represents one thing of a Goldliocks choice — the participant who gives probably the most balanced set of attributes.Â
To wit, let’s evaluate Condon to the category’s different prime hitters. He has extra energy than Bazzana or fellow center infielder JJ Wetherholt; he has extra plate self-discipline than sluggers Jac Caglianone and Braden Montgomery; he ought to supply extra defensive versatility than Nick Kurtz; and his school background makes him “safer” than prepsters Bryce Rainer and Konnor Griffin. (The final half additionally holds true in the event you evaluate him to Chase Burns and Hagen Smith, the very best pitchers within the class.)
A part of constructing a choice record is enjoying “higher or worse” with varied gamers. Take Condon’s benefit in that train, mix it with the aforementioned developments this season, and it turns into simpler to grasp how and why he is turn out to be the highest participant in our rankings.