The 2024 ACC season will probably be a landmark one as membership balloons to 17 full-time soccer members with the offseason additions of California, Stanford and SMU. With solely eight video games on the convention schedule, each crew will play precisely half of the ACC earlier than we tally up the wins and losses to determine who will get to play for the ACC championship in early December.
That sort of schedule imbalance actually involves gentle after we begin breaking down win totals. There are good groups who will win fewer video games than you may think due to their draw. Conversely, groups that could be off the radar will wind up in ACC title competition late within the 12 months. Energy of schedule turns into an enormous speaking level nationally on the subject of Faculty Soccer Playoff competition, however on the subject of ending within the high two of a division-less convention, a good draw is helpful. Projecting over or underneath an oddsmakers win complete typically begins with schedule evaluation, and we have tried to do as a lot within the train beneath.
So let’s get into it, providing not solely an over or underneath for every win complete however particularly calling the results of each single sport on the ACC soccer schedule.
Over/underneath 4.5 wins
Wins: Duquesne, Western Kentucky, at Virginia, Pitt
Losses: at Florida State, at Missouri, Michigan State, at Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, at SMU, North Carolina
Evaluation: Invoice O’Brien is taking up a Boston Faculty crew that does have a top quality quarterback in Thomas Castellanos and loads of returning expertise from a bunch that received seven video games in 2023, however the schedule is rather more troublesome. Nonconference opponents like UConn and Military have been traded for Missouri and Michigan State. Reaching a bowl sport would require a number of upsets, and whereas O’Brien has revered teaching chops, I feel it is a true reset 12 months in Chestnut Hill. Beneath 4.5 (+120)
Cal
Over/Beneath 6.5 wins
Wins: UC Davis, San Diego State, at Pitt, Oregon State, at Wake Forest, Syracuse, Stanford
Losses: at Auburn, at Florida State, Miami, NC State, at SMU
Evaluation: The vary of attainable outcomes appears to be from 6-6 to 8-4, so to see 6.5 provided at plus-money was a shock after our preliminary tally. The Bears have a ton of expertise all through the roster, but it surely’s the offense that may very well be particular in 2024. Not solely does working again Jaydn Ott return after a First Crew All-Pac-12 exhibiting final season, however the passing choices have improved with the additions of Mikey Matthews (Utah) and Tobias Merriweather (Notre Dame). It helps that two of the toss-up video games on the schedule (NC State and Syracuse) contain an opponent flying throughout the nation, however Cal will face its personal journey calls for that we’ll be monitoring on a week-to-week foundation. Over 6.5 (+142)
Over/Beneath 9.5 wins
Wins: Appalachian State, NC State, Stanford, at Wake Forest, Virginia, Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt, The Citadel, South Carolina
Losses: Georgia, at Florida State
Evaluation: A decade of 10-win seasons coming to an finish in 2023 dominated the headlines, however what could be ignored is that Clemson was a handful of performs away from ending 11-1 towards that very same schedule. Two additional time defeats and a one-score loss to NC State flip a evaluate of 2023 into realizing it will not take a lot for a bounce again to this system’s fashionable customary. Nevertheless, it is essential to notice the way in which the Tigers reply to the season-opener towards Georgia, win or lose, will probably be essential as a result of the largest ACC video games come early with NC State on Sept. 21 and Florida State on Oct. 5. Over 9.5 (+138)
Over/Beneath 5.5 wins
Wins: Elon, at Northwestern, UConn, at Center Tennessee
Losses: North Carolina, at Georgia Tech, Florida State, SMU, at Miami, at NC State, Virginia Tech, at Wake Forest
Evaluation: That is the best nonconference schedule for a brand new coach taking up a crew that is turned over a ton of its expertise. 4 winnable video games, all initially of the 12 months, ought to assist present some confidence for the long run in Durham. The difficulty is that Duke has one of many hardest convention schedules within the ACC and the fewest possible spots to select up a win as Georgia Tech and Wake Forest are each on the street. I’ve acquired my eye on the Manny Diaz revenge sport at Miami — the week after Miami performs Florida State, by the way in which — however for now I see one thing nearer to a “Yr 1” document. Beneath 5.5 (-148)
Florida State
Over/Beneath 9.5 wins
Wins: Georgia Tech, Boston Faculty, Memphis, Cal, at SMU, Clemson, at Duke, North Carolina, Charleston Southern, Florida
Losses: at Miami, at Notre Dame
Evaluation: The Seminoles do not get a lot of a break on the subject of their schedule, however Mike Norvell has achieved an important job of reinforcing depth all through the roster with the switch portal. So though the Seminoles misplaced 10 gamers to the 2024 NFL Draft, a fast scan of the depth chart nonetheless exhibits an ACC title contender. Florida State may have top-of-the-line pass-rushing tandems within the ACC with Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones Jr., in addition to a set of ability place expertise that ought to arrange QB DJ Uiagalelei for achievement in his return to the ACC. Over 9.5 (-105)
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Georgia Tech
Over/Beneath 5.5 wins
Wins: Georgia State, at Syracuse, VMI, Duke, at North Carolina
Losses: Florida State, at Louisville, Notre Dame, at Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State, at Georgia
Evaluation: Coach Brent Key deserves a ton of credit score for the way in which the Yellow Jackets battled final season, ending as considered one of simply 5 groups within the ACC with a profitable document in convention play (5-3). And since there are a ton of items again for 2024 (particularly on offense), the notion needs to be that that Georgia Tech is poised for yet one more step ahead. However to truly return to the postseason would require success in additional than half of Georgia Tech’s toss-up video games, a few of that are on the street. Beneath 5.5 wins (-180)
Louisville
Over/Beneath 8.5 wins
Wins: Austin Peay, Jacksonville State, Georgia Tech, at Virginia, Miami, at Boston Faculty, at Stanford, Pitt, at Kentucky
Losses: at Notre Dame, SMU, at Clemson
Evaluation: Like Mike Norvell, Jeff Brohm has used the switch portal as a strategy to preserve the roster stocked with expertise as he lays the inspiration for his model of Louisville soccer. The expertise arrives from Alabama, Yale and about all over the place in between, however all of them (thus far) have purchased in to what the Cardinals are attempting to perform. Look no additional than final 12 months’s 10-win season as proof that the tactic works, although one other massive batch of newcomers does problem Brohm and his employees to make the magic occur once more. Over 8.5 wins (+102)
Miami
Over/Beneath 9.5 wins
Wins: Florida A&M, Ball State, at USF, at Cal, Florida State, Duke, at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, at Syracuse
Losses: at Florida, Virginia Tech, at Louisville
Evaluation: Quarterback Cam Ward is way from the one star that Mario Cristobal added throughout the offseason, although he does appear to be the lacking piece for a bunch that already performed rather well alongside the strains of scrimmage. By way of expertise, Miami has top-of-the-line rosters within the ACC, however failing to ship outcomes that match the expertise has been a development for a lot the Hurricanes’ ACC tenure since 2004. Projecting a 6-2 document in ACC play is extra comfy than accurately figuring out the wins and losses — Cristobal’s Chaotic Canes are able to blowing a result in Georgia Tech and beating Clemson in 2OT in a 14-day span — so when you assume this goes over, then it begins with profitable the opener towards the Gators. Beneath 9.5 wins (-170)
North Carolina
Over/Beneath 7.5 wins
Wins: Charlotte, NC Central, JMU, at Duke, Pitt, at Virginia, Wake Forest, at Boston Faculty
Losses: at Minnesota, Georgia Tech, at Florida State, NC State
Evaluation: After the lack of QB Drake Maye and several other different high contributors from the group that tallied 17 wins during the last two years, there may be an assumed step again heading into 2024. However whereas the preseason buzz has calmed considerably, the top outcomes may very well be the identical. North Carolina has one of many extra manageable convention schedules and a nonconference slate that seems to arrange for a 3-1 exhibiting out of the league. There are big-picture questions, like checking out the quarterback place and Geoff Collins’ efforts to enhance the protection, however on a game-to-game foundation there usually are not many spots the place North Carolina will probably be a large underdog. Over 7.5 wins (-115)
NC State
Over/Beneath 8.5 wins
Wins: Western Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois, Wake Forest, Syracuse, at Cal, Stanford, Duke, at Georgia Tech, at North Carolina
Losses: Tennessee, at Clemson
Evaluation: It is a bit unsettling to be thus far over the oddsmakers quantity, however whenever you run the mathematics, the high-floor of Dave Doeren’s program and high quality offseason roster work make the elusive 10-win mark appear extra attainable. The Wolfpack keep away from Florida State, Miami, SMU and Virginia Tech and may have three wins in nonconference play even with out an upset of Tennessee. Over 8.5 wins (-134)
Pitt
Over/Beneath 5.5 wins
Wins: Kent State, at Cincinnati, Youngstown State, Syracuse, Virginia
Losses: West Virginia, at North Carolina, Cal, at SMU, Clemson, at Louisville, at Boston Faculty
Evaluation: The large query for Pitt will probably be whether or not one other change at offensive coordinator can spark extra success. With this schedule, the Panthers might want to rating greater than the 20.2 factors per sport (No. 116 in FBS) they averaged in 2023. The protection needs to be sturdy, particularly up entrance, but it surely could be one other 12 months to make it again to the postseason. Beneath 5.5 wins (-105)
SMU
Over/Beneath 7.5 wins
Wins: at Nevada, Houston Christian, BYU, at Louisville, at Stanford, at Duke, Pitt, Boston Faculty, at Virginia, Cal
Losses: TCU, Florida State
Evaluation: Whereas a lot is being manufactured from Oregon, Texas or Utah crash touchdown in an influence convention and wining the title, SMU could be getting ignored. Coach Rhett Lashlee returns tons of starters from an 11-win crew and faces a convention slate that features lots of the groups projected to be close to the underside of the standings. SMU may not be on the Florida State-Clemson degree in a vacuum, however the Mustangs may very well be on the massive stage in December taking part in for a convention title with this schedule. Over 7.5 wins (-176)
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Stanford
Over/Beneath 3.5 wins
Wins: Cal Poly, Wake Forest, at San Jose State,
Losses: TCU, at Syracuse, at Clemson, Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame, SMU, at NC State, Louisville, at Cal
Evaluation: Stanford will begin and end its season with a number of consecutive weeks within the state of California, however in between is a brutal stretch of journey that should be thought of when selecting this win complete. From Sept. 20 to Nov. 2, the Cardinal pays seven in seven weeks, with 4 of them going down within the Jap Time Zone. Ping-ponging throughout the nation goes to take a toll on a crew that needs to be higher than it was in Troy Taylor’s first 12 months however faces one of many hardest schedules within the ACC. Beneath 3.5 wins (+116)
Syracuse
Over/Beneath 7.5 wins
Wins: Ohio, Stanford, Holy Cross, at UNLV, at Boston Faculty, UConn
Losses: Georgia Tech, at NC State, at Pitt, Virginia Tech, at Cal, Miami
Evaluation: Not going through Florida State or Clemson is a particularly lucky draw for Fran Brown in his first 12 months as head coach at Syracuse. And with 4 projected wins in nonconference play, reaching a bowl sport ought to completely be the expectation. The difficulty right here is the slim margins that Syracuse faces in a few of these toss-up video games in convention play. That is the place notes like Syracuse’s 10-game dropping streak in video games at Pitt or flying to California in mid-November with no bye weeks come into play; they’ve me agreeing with the notion of a bowl crew however falling wanting going over. Beneath 7.5 wins (-138)
Virginia
Over/Beneath 4.5 wins
Wins: Richmond, at Coastal Carolina
Losses: at Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston Faculty, Louisville, at Clemson, North Carolina, at Pitt, at Notre Dame, SMU, at Virginia Tech
Evaluation: Tony Elliott wanted a type of schedules with 4 pencil-them-in nonconference wins, and that is decidedly not that. Even our projected wins right here embrace an opener towards the FCS CAA champs from 2023 and a visit to face a pesky Coastal program of their home. The alternatives to flip this end result begin with profitable powerful street video games at Wake Forest and Pitt, after which pulling off not less than two upsets as a house underdog. Beneath 4.5 wins (-110)
Virginia Tech
Over/Beneath 8.5 wins
Wins: at Vanderbilt, Marshall, at ODU, at Miami, at Stanford, Boston Faculty, Georgia Tech, at Syracuse, at Duke, Virginia
Losses: Rutgers, Clemson
Evaluation: After three wins in Yr 1 and 7 in Yr 2, each the oddsmakers and our projections are calling for an additional step ahead for coach Brent Pry in Yr 3 with the Hokies. It isn’t simply the overwhelming quantity of returning manufacturing from final season, however how that group carried out throughout a stretch during which the Hokies closed the 12 months with 5 in wins of their final seven video games, with all 5 victories coming by not less than 17 factors. Issues appeared to click on in Blacksburg, and whenever you carry that over to a schedule that doesn’t have Florida State, NC State or SMU, there may be clear room for extra upward motion throughout the league. Over 8.5 wins (+142)
Wake Forest
Over/Beneath 4.5 wins
Wins: North Carolina A&T, Virginia, Louisiana, at UConn, Duke
Losses: Ole Miss, at NC State, Clemson, at Stanford, Cal, at North Carolina, at Miami
Evaluation: After a seven straight bowl seasons, Wake Forest stumbled in 2023 with a 4-8 document and only one win in ACC play. A number of the adjustment needed to be anticipated given the roster turnover and harm points, however with higher harm luck I feel there will probably be a return to one thing nearer to the Dave Clawson program customary. A giant piece of that is the quarterback place, which was a spot of consistency all through that seven 12 months run, and switch Hank Bachmeier is being tasked with getting the offense again on observe. If the previous Boise State (and one-time Louisiana Tech) quarterback can faucet into the perfect of what we have seen all through his profession in a return to type, a bowl sport needs to be within the playing cards in Winston-Salem. Over 4.5 wins (-142)